NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	94		Excitement	4.1 [609]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +15.4%
Denver Nuggets	100		Comeback	1.2 [512]		LVP	Steve Nash (DAL): -11.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Samaki Walker	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hot Rod Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	24	54%	0.04	3	-0.06	4	25%	-0.03
Chris Anstey	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	6	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Erick Strickland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	10	52%	-0.02	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Robert Pack	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Hubert Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	8	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	9	38%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.01
Steve Nash	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.15	-0.01	-0.05	16	31%	-0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.02	-0.05	18	67%	0.18	3	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	13	70%	0.13	3	-0.06	7	71%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.14	0.01	-0.12	9	30%	0.01	4	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	12	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	12	83%	0.03
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	-0.08	-0.17	0.00	-0.08	11	37%	-0.04	4	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	60.5	28.8	38.6	32.0	39.5	16.0	39.7	255.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +23.1%

DEN +10.3%

DEN +3.2%

DEN +12.8%

DEN +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.5	14.2	15.8	91.3	102.0	99.6
season	15.9	15.5		99.7	100.7
opponent	15.6	15.6		107.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.0	17.3	13.8	10.9	14.5
DEN	15.0	13.3	13.9	14.6	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samaki Walker	12	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-7	8	11.2	14.9	-3.65	16.8	13.8	3.08
Erick Strickland	41	38	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.44	14	-20	34	10.8	16.9	-6.06	15.2	13.5	1.65
Gary Trent	14	14	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-3	0	13.2	14.7	-1.46	16.8	13.7	3.05
Shawn Bradley	35	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.18	4	-10	14	12.8	15.3	-2.54	15.3	13.6	1.69
A.C. Green	38	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-2	-2	16.2	13.5	2.67	11.9	15.3	-3.41
Chris Anstey	29	26	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-1	-4	20.6	12.1	8.46	11.6	15.1	-3.53
Hot Rod Williams	15	14	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.05	-9	3	-12	14.7	14.4	0.22	13.9	14.2	-0.29
Robert Pack	32	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	0	-6	15.3	14.1	1.17	15.3	13.6	1.75
Steve Nash	74	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-4	2	14.1	15.3	-1.16	13.5	15.7	-2.25
Hubert Davis	40	41	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-6	6	14.6	14.4	0.16	15.2	13.4	1.84
Michael Finley	92	86	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-4	2	13.7	20.7	-7.00	14.2	13.7	0.58
Dirk Nowitzki	49	47	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.07	-15	9	-24	17.7	11.5	6.18	13.0	15.3	-2.25
Cedric Ceballos	55	52	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.17	-10	4	-14	12.9	16.2	-3.32	14.3	14.0	0.29

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	77	82	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-5	16	13.2	17.7	-4.51	15.0	12.3	2.69
Cory Alexander	74	76	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.35	3	3	0	14.8	12.2	2.66	13.1	18.5	-5.43
Antonio McDyess	80	83	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.20	8	-2	10	15.0	10.5	4.50	14.5	14.2	0.28
Chauncey Billups	66	72	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.14	7	-1	8	13.7	15.2	-1.60	15.2	12.7	2.48
Nick Van Exel	78	83	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	7	-8	13.7	15.8	-2.11	14.1	16.1	-2.02
Bryant Stith	48	53	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.14	3	3	0	12.4	15.9	-3.52	14.4	14.5	-0.12
Eric Williams	38	37	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.11	2	4	-2	16.0	13.0	2.94	14.9	14.2	0.73
Keon Clark	12	13	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.09	-2	8	-10	15.0	14.1	0.94	18.7	13.9	4.83
Danny Fortson	17	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	7	-8	16.3	13.7	2.57	12.5	14.8	-2.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.94,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 96, SAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.92,0.93,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
DET 98, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
DEN 86, SAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%