NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	86		Excitement	3.4 [1147]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +7.2%
San Antonio Spurs	101		Comeback	1.1 [1284]		LVP	Kostas Papanikolaou (DEN): -9.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	10	45%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Randy Foye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	9	45%	-0.00	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Will Barton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.06	14	57%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	0.00	0.06	19	55%	0.01	3	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kostas Papanikolaou	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	12	54%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	13	67%	0.09	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	-0.05	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
David West	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	71%	0.04	2	-0.01	8	100%	0.03
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.08	-0.00	0.07	10	70%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray McCallum	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	14	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	2.0	27.6	14.0	22.6	1.8	25.2	114.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.9%

SAS +5.9%

SAS +6.7%

SAS +8.1%

SAS +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	16.4	14.9	94.5	113.5	105.1
season	14.9	15.7		104.3	109.0
opponent	14.7	14.9		97.9	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	16.1	16.8	15.4	15.6
SAS	15.1	15.9	18.4	16.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Arthur	37	37	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.21	9	-24	33	15.5	15.6	-0.10	16.6	16.3	0.22
Nikola Jokic	47	48	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.22	7	-22	29	15.6	15.5	0.09	17.1	15.7	1.36
Randy Foye	49	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-16	17	16.0	15.1	0.88	16.5	16.4	0.14
Gary Harris	64	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-10	5	15.5	15.7	-0.14	16.1	17.1	-1.02
Kostas Papanikolaou	51	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	-5	-5	15.2	16.1	-0.90	15.9	17.1	-1.29
Will Barton	50	50	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-10	5	16.1	14.9	1.17	17.0	15.8	1.19
Mike Miller	24	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.03	-10	-5	-5	15.4	15.6	-0.21	17.5	16.0	1.45
Jameer Nelson	42	39	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	1	-17	15.1	16.0	-0.88	16.4	16.5	-0.14
Joffrey Lauvergne	44	41	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.16	-22	7	-29	15.5	15.6	-0.09	15.7	17.1	-1.36
Kenneth Faried	47	44	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	0.15	-24	9	-33	15.6	15.5	0.09	16.2	16.6	-0.42

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Green	58	61	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.11	21	-6	27	16.5	16.3	0.28	15.8	15.1	0.65
Tony Parker	47	49	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.17	23	-8	31	16.3	16.6	-0.39	15.9	15.1	0.80
David West	47	49	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.26	23	-8	31	16.1	16.8	-0.61	16.1	15.0	1.15
Kawhi Leonard	62	62	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.15	17	-2	19	16.0	17.5	-1.50	15.7	15.3	0.38
LaMarcus Aldridge	56	58	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.12	7	8	-1	16.2	16.8	-0.65	15.8	15.1	0.71
Kyle Anderson	25	27	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	13	-11	17.6	16.0	1.56	15.6	15.5	0.08
Boban Marjanovic	27	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	11	-7	17.2	16.1	1.13	14.9	15.9	-0.98
Boris Diaw	48	47	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	17	-19	16.6	16.3	0.27	15.1	16.1	-0.96
Patty Mills	42	42	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	23	-31	16.6	16.3	0.39	15.1	15.9	-0.80
Jonathon Simmons	31	30	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.17	-6	21	-27	16.3	16.5	-0.28	15.1	15.8	-0.65
Ray McCallum	2	2	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.07	-4	19	-23	16.5	16.4	0.06	11.0	15.7	-4.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 66, DET 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
MEM 79, DAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
GSW 75, LAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.68,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%