NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	7.3 [198]		MVP	Tom Gugliotta (PHX): +15.2%
Phoenix Suns	115		Comeback	1.1 [754]		LVP	Bryant Stith (DEN): -21.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.00	13	72%	0.18	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Raef LaFrentz	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	12	61%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Antonio McDyess	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	20	60%	0.10	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.04
Keon Clark	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
Eric Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	71%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Loren Meyer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	7	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Nick Van Exel	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18	-0.04	-0.14	0.00	18	50%	-0.05	3	-0.13	4	50%	-0.03
Bryant Stith	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.22	-0.15	-0.07	0.00	12	24%	-0.18	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.08	0.00	14	71%	0.19	2	-0.04	13	85%	0.05
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	7	94%	0.19	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	11	59%	0.07	3	-0.06	7	71%	-0.00
Rex Chapman	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.10	0.10	-0.01	11	33%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	0.03
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	62%	0.00	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.04
Toby Bailey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Gerald Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	10	40%	-0.09	1	-0.03	10	60%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.5	29.8	15.0	27.0	1.8	47.2	146.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +35.2%

PHX +16.2%

DEN -9.0%

PHX +5.9%

PHX +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	15.6	13.0	15.8	106.9	115.0	99.6
season	15.5	15.3		100.7	102.7
opponent	15.9	15.6		101.3	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.3	16.2	16.8	12.8	15.6
PHX	12.7	12.6	13.2	13.4	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	11	11	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-7	7	16.5	15.5	1.01	13.1	13.0	0.10
Keon Clark	23	19	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.04	0	-7	7	15.8	15.6	0.24	12.8	13.0	-0.26
Eric Williams	45	46	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-9	11	16.8	14.7	2.05	12.9	13.1	-0.20
Loren Meyer	22	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.09	1	-8	9	15.1	15.8	-0.71	11.9	13.3	-1.31
Cory Alexander	31	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	-1	-5	14.7	16.0	-1.30	13.5	12.8	0.65
Nick Van Exel	79	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.25	-1	-6	5	16.1	13.9	2.28	12.9	13.5	-0.64
Chauncey Billups	68	66	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-3	-1	14.8	17.3	-2.51	12.7	13.5	-0.76
Raef LaFrentz	71	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	-3	-1	15.5	16.0	-0.55	12.9	13.2	-0.21
Antonio McDyess	75	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	4	-15	15.8	15.3	0.50	13.4	11.8	1.54
Bryant Stith	80	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.21	-12	5	-17	15.6	16.0	-0.39	13.2	12.1	1.15

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Gugliotta	69	70	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	-1	9	12.8	13.5	-0.65	15.8	15.3	0.56
Jason Kidd	87	88	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.32	2	5	-3	12.9	13.7	-0.80	15.2	18.4	-3.15
George McCloud	57	59	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.20	6	1	5	12.9	13.2	-0.29	15.4	16.0	-0.53
Rex Chapman	62	60	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	-3	13	12.9	13.2	-0.34	15.7	15.5	0.26
Gerald Brown	31	34	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	5	-3	13.0	13.0	-0.05	15.1	15.9	-0.79
Luc Longley	33	30	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.04	7	0	7	12.8	13.1	-0.36	17.8	14.7	3.07
Clifford Robinson	73	71	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.20	1	6	-5	13.2	12.3	0.91	15.9	15.1	0.73
Danny Manning	43	46	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	8	-9	13.7	12.5	1.14	15.0	16.2	-1.22
Pat Garrity	44	46	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	9	-11	13.3	12.8	0.49	15.9	15.4	0.49
Toby Bailey	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	5	-3	2.0	13.1	-11.11	2.0	15.8	-13.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.73,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.93,0.9,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 90, IND 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.7,0.74,0.93,0.83,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	94.1%
IND 96, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.74,0.85,0.97,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.1%
LAL 100, LAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.73,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.89,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.97,0.98,0.97,1	94.1%