NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	86		Excitement	9.4 [59]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +17.2%
Seattle SuperSonics	92		Comeback	3.0 [442]		LVP	Steve Nash (DAL): -26.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.06	-0.02	6	83%	0.21	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
A.C. Green	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.09	0.00	7	57%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	6	50%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Anstey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	5	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Hubert Davis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hot Rod Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.07	0.00	2	67%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	5	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	17	26%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.02	-0.18	-0.02	10	62%	0.06	3	-0.24	6	67%	-0.01
Samaki Walker	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2	-0.04	-0.16	0.00	8	37%	-0.15	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.26	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26	-0.07	-0.17	0.02	13	33%	-0.24	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.17	0.17	0.02	0.14	-0.02	28	48%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.00	8	53%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	78%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	10	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.09	-0.00	10	48%	-0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.12
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	6	17%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	20	43%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.10	0.01	8	31%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	43.7	2.0	30.2	14.7	24.1	1.7	32.1	0.7	28.5	177.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	1.7	18.8	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +27.0%

DAL -18.7%

SEA +18.8%

SEA +26.6%

DAL -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SEA	NBA	DAL	SEA	NBA
this game	17.3	19.2	15.8	100.0	104.5	99.6
season	15.9	15.4		99.7	102.4
opponent	15.9	15.6		103.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	14.9	18.1	15.9	18.5	22.1	17.3
SEA	21.1	22.9	19.1	15.8	15.4	19.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.C. Green	41	40	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.09	6	-12	18	16.7	18.0	-1.30	20.9	17.8	3.13
Erick Strickland	23	25	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-6	6	17.3	17.3	0.01	17.4	19.9	-2.50
Shawn Bradley	44	42	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-8	10	16.7	18.0	-1.25	19.8	18.6	1.18
Chris Anstey	3	3	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-3	0	19.0	17.3	1.72	31.0	18.8	12.22
Robert Pack	23	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-6	6	16.6	17.6	-1.05	17.9	19.6	-1.77
Dirk Nowitzki	26	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-2	-2	15.9	17.9	-2.03	21.2	18.3	2.93
Gary Trent	17	18	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	1	-8	16.2	17.6	-1.37	16.9	19.8	-2.90
Michael Finley	59	60	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-2	-2	17.0	18.1	-1.18	19.9	17.7	2.12
Hubert Davis	5	7	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-4	2	23.8	16.9	6.86	9.6	20.0	-10.45
Cedric Ceballos	60	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-4	2	17.9	15.9	2.03	18.3	21.2	-2.93
Samaki Walker	27	26	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-1	-4	18.7	16.7	1.94	20.9	18.5	2.46
Hot Rod Williams	39	43	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	-1	-4	17.9	16.9	1.03	17.8	20.6	-2.79
Steve Nash	63	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	0	-6	17.6	16.6	1.05	19.6	17.9	1.77

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olden Polynice	68	68	1.02	-0.52	1.54	0.64	13	-7	20	19.6	17.6	2.00	17.3	17.6	-0.28
Vin Baker	73	73	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.39	7	-1	8	19.0	20.1	-1.13	17.5	16.5	0.94
Gary Payton	74	72	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	1	4	19.1	19.6	-0.53	17.1	18.8	-1.73
Billy Owens	37	35	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.33	3	3	0	21.0	17.9	3.07	15.5	18.6	-3.03
Detlef Schrempf	59	57	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	0	6	20.0	17.5	2.50	17.7	16.7	0.98
Hersey Hawkins	52	50	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	9	-12	18.3	20.4	-2.12	17.9	16.6	1.30
Dale Ellis	41	39	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.12	4	2	2	17.3	20.9	-3.56	17.8	16.9	0.88
Moochie Norris	15	14	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.03	1	5	-4	18.5	19.3	-0.88	18.8	17.1	1.73
Aaron Williams	21	22	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.11	-6	12	-18	19.6	19.1	0.56	17.0	17.5	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.75,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.79,0.96,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 94, MIL 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.64,0.55,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.53,0.64,0.81,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.91,1,1	92.0%
GSW 106, SAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.6,0.78,0.81,0.64,0.57,0.73,0.5,0.75,0.89,0.84,0.92,1	90.8%
LAC 109, SAC 116	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.84,0.72,0.7,0.6,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.77,0.69,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.79,0.91,0.99,1	90.0%