NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	110		Excitement	4.1 [606]		MVP	Joe Smith (MIN): +14.4%
Denver Nuggets	92		Comeback	1.0 [581]		LVP	Cory Alexander (DEN): -8.3%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.17	0.00	0.03	11	92%	0.14	1	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.04	-0.02	13	68%	0.15	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Dean Garrett	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	6	71%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	11	58%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	2	83%	0.04	3	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Reggie Jordan	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Andrae Patterson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Grant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Bill Curley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Mitchell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	0.00	0.05	7	56%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.08	0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.16	0.01	-0.07	22	33%	-0.06	2	-0.01	4	50%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	7	69%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	-0.00	-0.08	12	42%	-0.01	2	-0.02	9	67%	0.01
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.01	-0.04	13	39%	-0.01	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	-0.03	15	47%	0.01	4	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	15	50%	0.00	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	0.01	-0.03	4	47%	0.00	4	-0.08	7	100%	0.04
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	-0.01	-0.06	8	30%	-0.03	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.3	28.0	15.0	29.2	1.8	34.0	133.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +24.1%

MIN +0.9%

MIN +0.7%

MIN +23.4%

MIN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	14.2	14.5	15.8	110.0	91.1	99.6
season	15.0	15.5		98.6	100.7
opponent	15.6	15.9		107.6	98.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	12.5	13.3	15.5	15.4	14.2
DEN	16.8	15.0	12.8	13.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephon Marbury	76	76	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.21	25	-7	32	14.3	13.6	0.72	14.7	13.8	0.86
Anthony Peeler	66	66	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.20	22	-4	26	13.7	15.1	-1.35	15.2	13.1	2.19
Dean Garrett	53	54	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.08	15	3	12	14.8	13.4	1.40	15.2	13.7	1.46
Kevin Garnett	62	63	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.20	19	-1	20	14.1	14.3	-0.28	14.8	14.0	0.74
Sam Mitchell	62	63	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	3	12	14.1	14.3	-0.19	14.7	14.1	0.65
Joe Smith	58	60	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.11	12	6	6	12.6	16.3	-3.65	14.7	14.1	0.57
Chris Carr	17	15	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	16	-14	13.9	14.2	-0.35	10.9	15.1	-4.17
Malik Sealy	35	37	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	20	-22	13.3	14.6	-1.36	15.2	14.1	1.11
Bobby Jackson	27	28	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	23	-28	14.1	14.2	-0.08	12.7	15.2	-2.40
Tom Hammonds	26	28	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	22	-26	14.9	13.9	0.97	14.5	14.5	0.07
Bill Curley	6	6	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	18	-18	11.8	14.3	-2.49	17.7	14.3	3.38
Reggie Jordan	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	21	-24	31.3	13.6	17.69	4.5	14.7	-10.19
Andrae Patterson	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	21	-24	23.5	13.8	9.72	3.3	14.8	-11.49
Paul Grant	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	21	-24	19.4	13.9	5.51	4.2	14.9	-10.66

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Alexander	50	49	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-22	26	13.8	15.1	-1.28	14.8	13.5	1.31
Keon Clark	25	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-19	20	12.2	15.2	-2.98	14.3	14.1	0.16
Danny Fortson	47	45	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.09	-1	-17	16	15.7	13.5	2.20	15.2	13.4	1.79
Chauncey Billups	42	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	-13	8	12.8	15.7	-2.91	15.2	13.4	1.78
Raef LaFrentz	57	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	-6	-6	13.4	15.9	-2.52	13.9	14.6	-0.71
Nick Van Exel	74	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.17	-19	1	-20	15.0	13.0	2.08	13.8	15.2	-1.41
Bryant Stith	60	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.08	-17	-1	-16	15.1	13.6	1.43	14.4	13.8	0.58
Eric Williams	77	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.07	-17	-1	-16	14.8	13.3	1.51	13.4	17.0	-3.57
Antonio McDyess	73	75	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.21	-24	6	-30	15.4	12.2	3.14	13.8	15.4	-1.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 112, DET 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
SAC 95, NJN 79	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
CHI 116, PHX 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%