NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	112		Excitement	4.2 [982]		MVP	Paul Millsap (ATL): +21.1%
Detroit Pistons	95		Comeback	1.0 [676]		LVP	Anthony Tolliver (DET): -6.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.16	0.04	-0.00	14	70%	0.21	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Mike Scott	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	5	83%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.15	0.00	0.04	9	94%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	10	57%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Al Horford	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.01	-0.04	15	43%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	8	65%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	12	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dennis Schroder	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.01	-0.04	14	39%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	8	18%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	11	61%	0.07	1	-0.02	9	56%	-0.03
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.12	0.00	0.09	6	83%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Tobias Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	20	52%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	12	44%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Darrun Hilliard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	12	43%	0.03	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	13	32%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.7	28.2	16.6	27.1	1.7	31.2	130.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +42.8%

ATL +2.7%

DET -9.0%

ATL +12.3%

ATL +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DET	NBA	ATL	DET	NBA
this game	14.8	15.5	14.9	117.9	100.0	105.1
season	14.2	15.0		104.1	104.9
opponent	15.1	15.1		105.0	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.4	15.2	13.4	14.3	14.8
DET	16.3	13.6	16.0	16.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	64	62	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.24	25	-8	33	13.9	16.6	-2.69	15.3	16.0	-0.74
Kyle Korver	59	58	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.08	16	1	15	15.1	14.3	0.80	15.8	15.1	0.67
Jeff Teague	64	64	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.09	15	2	13	14.8	14.7	0.09	16.2	14.1	2.11
Dennis Schroder	46	46	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.07	7	10	-3	14.8	14.8	0.09	15.0	16.0	-1.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	46	48	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.12	5	12	-7	14.7	14.9	-0.24	15.0	16.0	-1.04
Paul Millsap	57	57	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	9	-1	15.2	14.1	1.11	15.7	15.2	0.55
Kent Bazemore	67	66	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.01	8	9	-1	14.5	15.4	-0.89	15.4	15.9	-0.50
Mike Scott	32	31	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.20	1	16	-15	14.5	15.0	-0.50	14.8	15.8	-1.01
Kris Humphries	37	40	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	17	-17	15.9	14.1	1.83	16.1	15.1	1.05
Mike Muscala	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	15.3	14.8	0.55	15.3	15.5	-0.19

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrun Hilliard	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	15.3	15.5	-0.19	15.3	14.8	0.55
Steve Blake	35	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-18	19	15.2	15.7	-0.55	14.7	14.9	-0.21
Anthony Tolliver	26	25	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	-9	1	15.8	15.4	0.40	15.7	14.5	1.19
Andre Drummond	63	61	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-11	5	15.8	14.9	0.92	15.0	14.5	0.51
Stanley Johnson	49	47	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-13	9	14.9	16.1	-1.19	15.0	14.6	0.48
Aron Baynes	32	34	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.07	-11	-6	-5	14.9	15.8	-0.92	14.5	15.0	-0.51
Tobias Harris	69	70	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	-8	-1	15.4	15.8	-0.40	14.5	15.7	-1.19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	61	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.04	-11	-6	-5	16.0	14.7	1.26	15.0	14.4	0.64
Reggie Jackson	60	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.16	-18	1	-19	15.7	15.2	0.55	14.9	14.7	0.21
Marcus Morris	77	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.09	-19	2	-21	15.5	15.4	0.09	14.5	16.3	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 110, DEN 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
PHX 103, CLE 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
TOR 123, DET 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%