NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	95		Excitement	3.9 [627]		MVP	Joe Dumars (DET): +8.9%
Miami Heat	81		Comeback	1.0 [249]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -18.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Dumars	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	-0.01	0.00	10	70%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.02	-0.06	18	53%	0.07	2	-0.01	9	100%	0.03
Lindsey Hunter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	11	62%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Macon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	15	50%	0.08	4	-0.07	8	62%	-0.00
Loy Vaught	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bison Dele	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	6	47%	0.03	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.00
Don Reid	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	6	71%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.05	4	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	17	51%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	13	47%	-0.01	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.21	-0.03	-0.05	16	44%	-0.08	7	-0.10	11	64%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	23.7	15.7	24.2	2.4	30.6	123.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +25.7%

DET +10.0%

DET +17.1%

MIA -2.3%

MIA -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	17.5	15.8	15.8	109.2	94.2	99.6
season	16.6	16.6		101.4	101.3
opponent	16.7	16.1		96.8	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.8	16.2	18.9	16.3	17.5
MIA	14.6	18.1	14.7	15.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	77	76	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	0	14	17.2	20.0	-2.81	15.8	15.3	0.53
Jerry Stackhouse	57	55	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.08	11	3	8	17.2	18.1	-0.94	15.8	15.7	0.09
Grant Hill	60	60	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	2	10	17.7	17.2	0.48	15.4	16.5	-1.11
Jerome Williams	49	49	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.08	14	0	14	16.6	18.7	-2.07	16.5	14.8	1.77
Bison Dele	40	40	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.01	10	4	6	17.5	17.5	0.06	15.4	16.1	-0.69
Don Reid	48	47	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	9	-4	17.5	17.6	-0.13	16.2	15.3	0.89
Jud Buechler	22	23	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	9	-4	17.4	17.6	-0.21	17.6	15.1	2.51
Loy Vaught	33	33	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	12	-10	18.7	16.8	1.85	15.2	16.1	-0.85
Joe Dumars	43	41	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.20	-5	19	-24	18.7	16.3	2.43	14.1	17.3	-3.24
Mark Macon	6	6	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	12	-10	16.3	17.6	-1.27	18.5	15.6	2.94

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamie Watson	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-17	20	9.7	16.1	-6.31	16.0	17.6	-1.61
Rex Walters	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	14.5	15.9	-1.43	16.5	17.6	-1.15
Keith Askins	15	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.06	-1	-13	12	15.4	15.8	-0.45	19.1	17.2	1.87
Mark Strickland	21	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-14	14	15.4	15.9	-0.45	15.5	18.2	-2.71
Dan Majerle	54	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.07	-13	-1	-12	16.0	15.3	0.67	17.7	17.2	0.54
Terry Porter	32	31	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.06	-13	-1	-12	17.2	14.9	2.36	17.3	17.6	-0.30
P.J. Brown	65	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.13	-18	4	-22	16.0	15.1	0.83	17.2	18.4	-1.19
Alonzo Mourning	76	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	-5	-4	15.7	16.4	-0.72	18.2	12.9	5.28
Jamal Mashburn	78	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.14	-9	-5	-4	15.5	18.5	-3.01	17.6	16.0	1.65
Tim Hardaway	75	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.04	-14	0	-14	15.8	15.5	0.36	17.4	18.1	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 103, CHA 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
TOR 103, ATL 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
MIA 94, HOU 82	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	95.7%