NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	4.3 [953]		MVP	Malik Allen (MIA): +9.8%
Houston Rockets	82		Comeback	1.0 [195]		LVP	James Posey (HOU): -16.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Allen	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.00	11	64%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.01	8	75%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Caron Butler	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	15	62%	0.10	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.02
Eddie House	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.03	8	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	3	71%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Travis Best	0.01	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	8	58%	0.03	2	-0.02	10	90%	0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	31%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	8	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juaquin Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	13	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	10	38%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	10	27%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	18	50%	-0.02	3	-0.09	18	78%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.03	10	25%	-0.13	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.7	36.2	16.7	26.2	1.7	38.0	144.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +59.9%

MIA +1.8%

HOU -12.6%

HOU -0.2%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	16.0	17.5	15.5	109.3	95.3	101.6
season	16.3	16.3		94.6	101.7
opponent	15.4	15.9		100.4	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.1	14.9	18.2	15.9	16.0
HOU	19.2	17.9	15.4	17.6	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Stepania	30	32	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.18	6	6	0	18.1	14.9	3.28	19.9	16.1	3.85
Rasual Butler	45	44	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.13	7	5	2	18.0	13.8	4.15	18.0	16.9	1.14
Brian Grant	73	72	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	6	0	15.7	17.6	-1.90	16.9	20.6	-3.77
Caron Butler	70	72	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	3	6	15.3	18.9	-3.61	16.8	20.8	-3.94
Travis Best	50	51	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	6	0	14.9	17.5	-2.53	17.4	17.7	-0.28
Mike James	36	35	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	6	0	17.5	14.9	2.53	17.7	17.4	0.28
Malik Allen	62	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	5	2	15.5	17.3	-1.79	16.8	19.2	-2.39
Eddie House	46	46	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	4	4	14.1	18.2	-4.16	17.4	17.6	-0.21
LaPhonso Ellis	18	16	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	7	-2	17.9	15.5	2.46	19.6	17.0	2.62

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juaquin Hawkins	10	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-13	14	15.9	17.7	-1.80	11.2	16.6	-5.43
Yao Ming	60	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-7	2	16.2	20.3	-4.10	15.2	17.8	-2.65
Eddie Griffin	66	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-10	8	16.2	21.7	-5.55	15.3	18.2	-2.90
Moochie Norris	14	14	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-7	2	23.0	16.4	6.58	20.1	15.2	4.95
James Posey	54	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	-4	-4	15.9	20.2	-4.30	15.3	17.2	-1.99
Terence Morris	28	28	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-4	-4	21.0	15.8	5.15	18.0	15.0	3.02
Maurice Taylor	20	21	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	-2	-8	21.7	16.2	5.55	18.2	15.3	2.90
Steve Francis	76	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-6	0	16.8	23.0	-6.24	15.6	19.2	-3.62
Kelvin Cato	26	27	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	-5	-2	20.3	16.2	4.10	17.8	15.2	2.65
Cuttino Mobley	76	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-2	-8	17.3	19.2	-1.94	16.1	15.5	0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 95, MIL 80	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0	96.6%
DET 95, MIA 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
SAS 107, MIN 96	0.5,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.4%