NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	103		Excitement	3.8 [1047]		MVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): +21.4%
Atlanta Hawks	91		Comeback	1.1 [862]		LVP	Speedy Claxton (ATL): -11.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.20	0.04	0.02	12	87%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.02	8	74%	0.10	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	69%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.01	0.04	11	67%	0.11	2	-0.04	14	86%	0.03
Anthony Parker	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	10	60%	0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	8	25%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jorge Garbajosa	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	6	21%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.00	0.03	18	74%	0.19	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	8	58%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	61%	0.05	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Richardson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.06	19	59%	0.05	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	12	44%	-0.00	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	7	14%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	8	12%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.7	29.0	15.6	25.3	2.4	26.7	128.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +34.2%

ATL -0.3%

TOR +7.8%

TOR +7.4%

TOR +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	17.6	16.5	15.4	122.6	107.1	104.5
season	15.2	16.1		104.7	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.4		106.1	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.7	16.7	17.1	21.3	17.6
ATL	16.3	16.0	17.2	16.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	50	51	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	2	8	17.8	17.3	0.52	16.1	17.2	-1.10
Rasho Nesterovic	60	62	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	5	2	18.2	15.9	2.38	17.1	14.8	2.32
Chris Bosh	64	64	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	3	6	18.0	16.2	1.73	17.2	14.5	2.71
Andrea Bargnani	43	44	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.12	7	5	2	16.5	18.7	-2.22	15.0	18.2	-3.19
T.J. Ford	32	33	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	5	2	16.4	18.3	-1.83	15.7	17.0	-1.34
Anthony Parker	60	59	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	8	-4	17.7	17.2	0.45	16.8	15.8	1.02
Jose Calderon	52	52	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	7	-2	18.3	16.4	1.83	17.0	15.7	1.34
Joey Graham	28	29	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.02	7	5	2	15.9	18.4	-2.52	14.3	17.7	-3.40
Jorge Garbajosa	31	31	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	8	-4	17.8	17.4	0.42	18.3	15.5	2.79

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Richardson	1	0	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-12	12	22.0	16.5	5.55	0.0	17.6	-17.57
Lorenzen Wright	27	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-9	6	17.5	16.1	1.47	16.4	18.1	-1.71
Shelden Williams	16	14	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-6	0	16.1	16.6	-0.56	16.3	17.8	-1.54
Speedy Claxton	29	28	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-6	0	15.5	17.1	-1.57	16.4	18.2	-1.77
Josh Childress	72	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-12	12	15.6	21.8	-6.29	18.1	15.1	2.91
Josh Smith	58	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-6	0	17.1	15.3	1.84	18.4	15.5	2.92
Marvin Williams	75	74	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-8	4	16.1	19.8	-3.72	17.5	18.0	-0.49
Joe Johnson	60	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	-5	-2	16.8	15.8	0.96	17.6	17.5	0.07
Zaza Pachulia	58	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	-3	-6	16.1	17.5	-1.47	18.1	16.4	1.71
Tyronn Lue	29	30	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.14	-19	7	-26	19.4	15.0	4.34	16.5	18.1	-1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.05,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 101, POR 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.19,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
TOR 106, HOU 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.2,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
DET 96, WAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.25,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.11,0.1,0.04,0,0,0,0	95.8%