NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	89		Excitement	6.1 [557]		MVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): +18.4%
Phoenix Suns	96		Comeback	7.0 [864]		LVP	Clifford Robinson (PHX): -20.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0.18	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.07	0.00	15	77%	0.27	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Goldwire	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.05	0.02	11	64%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Bryant Stith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	7	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Dean Garrett	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	9	30%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Johnny Newman	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	13	50%	-0.03	4	-0.13	4	75%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.09	0.02	7	75%	0.09	7	-0.27	2	100%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.10	0.01	17	66%	0.22	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.07	0.02	17	67%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Dennis Scott	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	14	39%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	11	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.03
Kevin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	7	53%	-0.02	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.11	-0.09	0.00	12	43%	-0.04	4	-0.17	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.3	27.6	15.4	22.4	2.7	31.4	124.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +10.5%

PHX +8.3%

PHX +12.3%

PHX +15.7%

PHX +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	16.7	16.0	15.6	100.0	110.3	102.5
season	16.2	15.0		96.7	105.3
opponent	15.9	15.2		100.0	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.4	14.4	21.1	16.9	16.7
PHX	16.6	15.0	17.7	15.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	74	72	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.25	6	-13	19	16.5	17.8	-1.30	16.3	14.4	1.93
Bryant Stith	44	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-7	7	17.7	15.7	1.99	15.6	16.4	-0.78
Anthony Goldwire	74	74	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-6	5	16.0	20.2	-4.19	16.4	14.0	2.35
Dean Garrett	36	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.24	1	-8	9	16.0	17.2	-1.25	17.5	14.9	2.56
Bobby Jackson	40	39	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-2	-3	17.8	15.8	2.01	15.8	16.2	-0.37
Johnny Newman	70	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-6	-1	-5	16.9	15.9	0.98	15.6	17.3	-1.68
Danny Fortson	33	33	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.10	-16	9	-25	17.0	16.5	0.49	15.9	16.1	-0.15
Cory Alexander	74	71	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.17	-14	7	-21	16.5	17.9	-1.46	15.3	19.2	-3.91

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	62	64	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.01	20	-13	33	15.7	16.8	-1.07	16.7	16.6	0.11
Kevin Johnson	57	57	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.28	7	0	7	15.1	17.7	-2.65	17.0	16.2	0.73
Jason Kidd	82	85	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.31	5	2	3	15.8	19.8	-4.03	17.0	11.0	5.99
Antonio McDyess	68	71	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.39	-1	8	-9	16.9	12.9	3.91	17.3	14.3	3.06
Mark Bryant	5	5	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.07	8	-1	9	10.0	16.4	-6.37	23.4	16.3	7.08
Clifford Robinson	79	80	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.22	1	6	-5	16.3	13.4	2.89	16.5	18.7	-2.17
George McCloud	68	69	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	5	-3	16.5	14.4	2.09	15.8	19.8	-4.04
Dennis Scott	14	14	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.06	-7	14	-21	16.7	15.9	0.85	14.1	17.2	-3.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.17,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.78,0.9,0.86,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.68,0.78,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 100, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.99,1	92.8%
CHI 92, MIL 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.79,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.78,0.9,0.96,1	92.0%
OKC 108, LAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.3,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.63,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.71,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.97,1	91.7%