NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	87		Excitement	10.6 [33]		MVP	Wesley Person (CLE): +80.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	88		Comeback	17.0 [55]		LVP	Bison Dele (DET): -31.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.01	13	76%	0.33	6	-0.27	7	100%	0.07
Don Reid	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Dumars	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	13	43%	0.05	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.09
Jerome Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	9	28%	0.03	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rick Mahorn	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	0.01	-0.14	-0.00	14	68%	0.02	5	-0.15	10	80%	-0.07
Bison Dele	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.31,-0.31	-0.09	-0.22	0.00	10	33%	-0.24	1	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.81	0.81	0.09	0.71	-0.00	13	62%	0.81	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.06	0.00	7	73%	0.04	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.18,-0.2,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	17	52%	0.18	5	-0.27	10	90%	0.19
Cedric Henderson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.01	0.01	15	40%	-0.04	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.02	-0.18	0.02	11	45%	-0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.07	-0.18	0.00	8	29%	-0.21	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.1	2.0	22.1	15.8	22.2	2.5	40.4	1.5	17.4	147.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	1.6	18.4	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +25.4%

CLE +2.1%

CLE +17.9%

CLE +15.7%

DET -11.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CLE	NBA	DET	CLE	NBA
this game	18.0	17.1	15.6	96.7	96.7	102.5
season	15.9	15.4		102.8	99.4
opponent	16.0	15.9		97.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	18.6	17.5	18.6	17.3	18.8	18.0
CLE	17.4	15.2	17.4	17.8	18.8	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Mahorn	16	15	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.22	3	-4	7	16.5	18.4	-1.86	18.3	16.9	1.46
Scot Pollard	13	14	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.11	4	-5	9	17.9	18.1	-0.13	19.9	16.6	3.25
Jerry Stackhouse	60	61	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.07	1	-2	3	17.6	19.0	-1.40	16.3	18.7	-2.42
Malik Sealy	17	17	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.03	0	-1	1	16.5	18.4	-1.93	14.5	17.7	-3.17
Lindsey Hunter	51	52	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-1	1	18.8	17.1	1.73	17.3	16.9	0.37
Don Reid	18	19	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	2	-5	19.6	17.6	1.97	18.8	16.7	2.12
Jerome Williams	51	49	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.17	-4	3	-7	17.4	18.9	-1.48	15.8	18.7	-2.94
Grant Hill	73	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.47	2	-3	5	18.4	16.5	1.93	17.5	15.4	2.03
Joe Dumars	61	62	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.53	1	-2	3	17.8	18.6	-0.82	17.3	16.8	0.52
Bison Dele	74	75	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.61	-7	6	-13	18.4	16.5	1.86	17.1	17.2	-0.09

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	47	47	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.77	5	-4	9	17.2	17.0	0.26	17.6	18.5	-0.87
Wesley Person	76	75	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.56	8	-7	15	16.9	17.9	-0.99	18.4	16.2	2.20
Brevin Knight	68	68	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.50	8	-7	15	17.0	17.4	-0.43	18.1	17.9	0.22
Vitaly Potapenko	45	44	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.53	2	-1	3	17.1	17.1	0.05	18.1	18.0	0.07
Derek Anderson	57	55	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.42	-6	7	-13	16.9	17.5	-0.67	17.9	18.3	-0.41
Shawn Kemp	76	76	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.31	8	-7	15	17.2	16.9	0.29	18.3	16.4	1.90
Cedric Henderson	46	47	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.05	-2	3	-5	17.9	16.3	1.62	17.4	18.8	-1.41
Carl Thomas	1	0	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	4	-7	0.0	17.3	-17.30	0.0	18.0	-18.03
Danny Ferry	12	13	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.01	-7	8	-15	19.1	16.8	2.27	17.7	18.1	-0.40
Bob Sura	27	25	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.05	-8	9	-17	16.4	17.4	-1.05	18.4	17.9	0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.52,0.36,0.32,0.42,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.33,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 100, DEN 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.73,0.66,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.39,0.64,0.57,0.42,0.46,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.58,1	89.0%
NYK 103, MIA 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.48,0.43,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.55,0.74,0.46,0.53,0.64,0.66,0.42,1	88.9%
NYK 107, IND 110	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.57,0.32,0.29,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	88.4%