NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	5.9 [593]		MVP	Mark Strickland (MIA): +16.8%
Boston Celtics	91		Comeback	2.7 [653]		LVP	Walter McCarty (BOS): -12.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Strickland	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.06	0.04	13	82%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Duane Causwell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	9	74%	0.13	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	15	70%	0.17	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0	0.02	0.02	0.03	8	65%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Eric Murdock	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	0.03	21	47%	-0.00	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.02	21	55%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Zan Tabak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	25	51%	0.01	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.02
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Dana Barros	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	12	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	37%	-0.06	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.04
Greg Minor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.05	0.03	8	37%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	9	44%	-0.02	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.4	23.6	16.2	22.6	2.3	25.7	114.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +64.9%

MIA +5.5%

BOS -16.2%

BOS -7.0%

MIA +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.9	16.5	15.6	118.0	102.2	102.5
season	15.8	15.1		104.7	100.2
opponent	15.1	16.2		103.0	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	13.4	16.0	19.0	15.9
BOS	14.5	17.9	17.5	16.2	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	79	78	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.11	17	-3	20	15.7	17.2	-1.47	16.8	14.2	2.60
Voshon Lenard	62	64	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.01	18	-4	22	16.4	14.7	1.66	17.2	14.4	2.81
Eric Murdock	30	31	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.05	13	1	12	13.8	17.0	-3.22	19.2	15.0	4.14
Dan Majerle	79	77	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	6	2	16.3	12.4	3.94	15.6	22.2	-6.69
Alonzo Mourning	77	78	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.11	9	5	4	15.9	16.1	-0.21	16.4	16.8	-0.41
Mark Strickland	73	74	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.05	12	2	10	16.3	13.9	2.47	16.6	16.0	0.55
Duane Causwell	6	6	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	12	-10	16.5	15.9	0.64	17.0	16.4	0.58
Terry Mills	16	15	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	16	-18	14.3	16.2	-1.93	13.3	17.1	-3.84
Brent Barry	23	22	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.05	-7	21	-28	16.0	15.9	0.14	14.3	17.2	-2.91

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyus Edney	28	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-17	20	15.5	16.9	-1.45	15.1	16.3	-1.16
Andrew DeClercq	47	50	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.24	5	-19	24	15.6	17.4	-1.83	16.2	15.5	0.69
Walter McCarty	72	71	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-8	2	15.7	19.7	-4.01	16.1	15.2	0.92
Antoine Walker	80	79	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.00	-9	-5	-4	15.8	22.0	-6.16	15.8	16.9	-1.13
Greg Minor	39	41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.01	-14	0	-14	17.5	15.7	1.78	16.6	15.3	1.23
Dana Barros	61	61	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.03	-17	3	-20	16.9	15.5	1.45	16.3	15.1	1.16
Zan Tabak	37	36	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.06	-18	4	-22	19.1	14.6	4.58	14.9	16.6	-1.70
Ron Mercer	81	79	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	0	-14	16.6	15.5	1.06	15.8	16.8	-1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.56,0.62,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 81, MIA 71	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	94.4%
CLE 94, NJN 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.29,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.03,0,0,0	94.2%
IND 105, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.27,0.26,0.17,0.16,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.02,0,0,0	94.0%