NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	105		Excitement	5.3 [746]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +29.1%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	1.8 [344]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -11.6%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.18	0.12	0.00	12	87%	0.31	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	13	63%	0.11	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.02
Travis Best	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	10	68%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick McKey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	9	45%	-0.00	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Mark Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	14	43%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Rik Smits	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	7	100%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	7	70%	0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.07	-0.06	0.02	13	74%	0.08	3	-0.10	12	67%	-0.04
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	0.02	12	58%	0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	0.04	8	31%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	0.03	7	21%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	19	42%	-0.09	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.7	29.0	18.4	26.5	2.7	37.0	139.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +44.0%

MIA -2.4%

MIA -2.8%

IND +10.3%

IND +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	16.7	15.2	120.7	118.8	101.7
season	15.4	15.7		106.5	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.1		98.2	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	17.0	18.4	15.5	16.4	16.8
MIA	15.8	18.5	18.1	14.9	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Rose	78	76	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.33	4	0	4	16.3	20.4	-4.10	16.6	17.7	-1.06
Travis Best	38	37	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	-4	12	17.4	16.3	1.11	17.7	16.0	1.74
Reggie Miller	72	71	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.48	-4	8	-12	16.7	17.1	-0.44	16.2	19.4	-3.25
Austin Croshere	55	55	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	-1	6	16.6	17.1	-0.46	16.0	18.1	-2.08
Sam Perkins	35	32	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.12	6	-2	8	15.5	17.6	-2.10	15.3	17.6	-2.25
Dale Davis	46	47	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	4	-4	17.7	15.7	2.01	17.9	15.3	2.58
Derrick McKey	26	24	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.04	8	-4	12	18.3	16.1	2.25	18.5	16.0	2.48
Mark Jackson	49	48	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.21	-4	8	-12	16.3	17.4	-1.11	16.0	17.7	-1.74
Rik Smits	36	35	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.16	-3	7	-10	17.0	16.6	0.34	17.7	16.0	1.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otis Thorpe	36	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.11	2	-6	8	16.0	17.2	-1.24	16.0	17.3	-1.29
Rodney Buford	1	2	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-2	0	6.0	16.8	-10.85	4.5	17.1	-12.56
Bruce Bowen	42	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.27	6	-10	16	15.7	17.7	-2.08	17.0	16.6	0.42
Clar. Weatherspoon	34	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-1	-2	16.3	17.0	-0.66	17.1	16.5	0.63
P.J. Brown	40	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	1	-6	18.4	15.2	3.18	17.5	16.1	1.40
Anthony Carter	78	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.44	2	-6	8	16.2	22.7	-6.53	16.8	16.4	0.44
Jamal Mashburn	73	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	0	-4	17.0	14.7	2.29	16.1	20.6	-4.52
Alonzo Mourning	54	56	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.26	-8	4	-12	17.2	15.9	1.33	17.4	15.7	1.65
Dan Majerle	67	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.27	-8	4	-12	17.0	15.7	1.33	17.0	16.1	0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.27,0.26,0.17,0.16,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 94, NJN 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.29,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.03,0,0,0	94.2%
NOH 93, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.35,0.29,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.04,0.13,0.04,0.06,0.05,0	94.0%
NJN 89, ORL 79	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.21,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.0%