NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	3.7 [1027]		MVP	Michael Jordan (CHI): +8.2%
Chicago Bulls	106		Comeback	1.1 [989]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -8.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.02	8	57%	0.05	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Rex Walters	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	12	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	13	52%	-0.01	2	-0.02	14	79%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	8	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Eric Murdock	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	8	55%	-0.01	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.04	17	45%	-0.01	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Jordan	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.14	0.00	0.06	30	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Scott Burrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Pippen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	11	59%	0.03	2	0.00	10	70%	-0.00
Dennis Rodman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	13	62%	0.05	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Kleine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dickey Simpkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	29.1	16.8	26.2	2.4	25.5	127.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +47.3%

MIA -10.5%

CHI +8.4%

CHI +6.1%

MIA -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.5	15.9	15.6	102.2	119.1	102.5
season	15.8	16.2		104.7	105.8
opponent	15.8	16.2		97.9	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	18.1	16.8	16.5	16.5
CHI	14.5	17.0	15.3	17.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rex Walters	7	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	15.0	16.6	-1.59	17.7	15.8	1.90
Duane Causwell	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-19	23	12.5	16.7	-4.25	17.7	15.8	1.90
Eric Murdock	44	44	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-18	21	17.0	15.9	1.16	16.2	15.6	0.56
Mark Strickland	14	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-11	7	17.4	16.3	1.15	18.5	15.4	3.09
Dan Majerle	61	61	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.05	-7	-8	1	16.6	16.2	0.31	15.9	16.0	-0.15
Brent Barry	35	34	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.13	-17	2	-19	16.3	16.6	-0.24	16.3	15.7	0.59
P.J. Brown	66	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	-3	-9	16.2	17.3	-1.20	15.0	18.8	-3.81
Voshon Lenard	64	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.03	-13	-2	-11	16.2	17.0	-0.75	15.4	17.3	-1.90
Tim Hardaway	75	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.08	-12	-3	-9	16.6	15.9	0.72	15.9	16.1	-0.20
Alonzo Mourning	73	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.08	-19	4	-23	16.7	15.2	1.48	16.2	14.8	1.33

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scottie Pippen	70	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.12	22	-7	29	15.3	18.1	-2.81	16.6	16.0	0.59
Toni Kukoc	65	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	3	9	16.3	14.8	1.46	17.0	14.8	2.26
Joe Kleine	30	31	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	3	9	15.8	16.0	-0.20	16.5	16.5	-0.01
Ron Harper	46	45	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	2	11	14.6	17.3	-2.72	16.1	16.8	-0.71
Michael Jordan	72	73	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	9	-3	16.2	14.6	1.55	16.4	16.9	-0.51
Jud Buechler	18	18	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.02	7	8	-1	14.5	16.3	-1.75	15.4	16.7	-1.27
Dennis Rodman	55	55	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	13	-11	15.6	16.4	-0.73	15.9	17.3	-1.40
Dickey Simpkins	14	13	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.13	-4	19	-23	18.5	15.4	3.09	14.9	16.7	-1.80
Scott Burrell	25	25	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	18	-21	17.7	15.2	2.48	17.1	16.2	0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.86,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.73,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 101, SAC 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.68,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.83,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
GSW 73, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.83,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.86,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
GSW 77, PHX 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%