NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	4.2 [943]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +6.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	81		Comeback	1.0 [755]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -15.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	75%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	16	54%	0.07	3	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Duane Causwell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	125%	0.06	5	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	3	67%	0.03	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Ike Austin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	11	58%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	12	52%	0.02	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.13	0.00	-0.03	7	50%	-0.02	5	-0.08	8	75%	-0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	53%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Carl Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	12	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	6	83%	-0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03	2	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Scott Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	0.04	14	56%	-0.02	4	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Shawn Kemp	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.18	-0.01	-0.10	15	37%	-0.02	4	-0.07	8	75%	0.01
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	5	18%	-0.07	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-0.02	12	26%	-0.13	1	-0.03	7	29%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	1.7	32.7	15.4	29.6	2.7	31.2	140.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.9%

MIA +11.9%

CLE -2.1%

CLE -6.7%

CLE -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	14.7	16.3	15.6	97.8	87.1	102.5
season	15.8	15.4		104.7	99.4
opponent	16.0	16.2		97.0	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.9	15.8	15.0	15.1	14.7
CLE	19.3	15.5	18.4	12.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	70	69	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	-4	18	14.7	14.7	0.00	17.2	13.5	3.79
Jamal Mashburn	79	79	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	3	4	14.2	17.3	-3.05	16.3	15.9	0.48
Alonzo Mourning	62	61	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.04	12	-2	14	14.8	14.4	0.42	17.2	14.5	2.65
P.J. Brown	60	59	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.13	8	2	6	15.1	14.0	1.13	16.9	15.2	1.68
Dan Majerle	59	61	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.15	7	3	4	14.6	14.9	-0.38	15.5	17.7	-2.16
Tim Hardaway	53	55	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.08	7	3	4	14.6	14.8	-0.18	17.1	15.0	2.10
Eric Murdock	39	38	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	7	-4	14.6	14.8	-0.19	15.0	17.1	-2.10
Duane Causwell	7	7	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.09	-2	12	-14	14.6	14.7	-0.14	7.7	17.0	-9.25
Ike Austin	30	31	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	13	-16	14.6	14.7	-0.15	15.5	16.7	-1.18
Rex Walters	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	13	-16	17.8	14.5	3.28	9.2	16.7	-7.47
Charles Smith	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	23.0	14.6	8.39	0.0	16.3	-16.27

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Ferry	34	34	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.17	3	-13	16	15.8	16.6	-0.79	15.3	14.4	0.94
Carl Thomas	5	4	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-6	2	14.0	16.4	-2.40	16.0	14.6	1.36
Vitaly Potapenko	27	24	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-6	2	13.4	17.5	-4.08	15.2	14.5	0.69
Scott Brooks	26	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.00	-5	-5	0	13.3	17.4	-4.16	13.0	15.3	-2.27
Bob Sura	49	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-11	12	15.7	16.9	-1.22	15.0	14.4	0.57
Cedric Henderson	81	82	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.24	0	-10	10	15.8	19.5	-3.71	14.5	15.8	-1.27
Brevin Knight	55	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.14	-6	-4	-2	16.6	15.8	0.72	15.5	13.5	2.06
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	49	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	4	-18	17.8	14.5	3.27	13.7	15.9	-2.11
Shawn Kemp	60	61	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-3	-4	18.0	13.1	4.88	14.7	14.6	0.11
Wesley Person	79	81	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.18	-14	4	-18	17.0	12.3	4.69	14.7	14.4	0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 90, CLE 65	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
NYK 95, MIA 75	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.2,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
UTA 98, SAC 91	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.24,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	95.8%