NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	8.7 [140]		MVP	Chuck Person (SAS): +41.2%
Sacramento Kings	97		Comeback	3.1 [410]		LVP	Anthony Johnson (SAC): -23.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chuck Person	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.24,0.42,0.41,0.41	0.14	0.26	-0.01	11	86%	0.45	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Geary	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	11	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.01	0.02	25	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	16	81%	0.05
Avery Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.05	0.02	12	54%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	9	48%	0.04	4	-0.11	3	67%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.10	-0.15	-0.01	13	47%	-0.05	4	-0.18	4	50%	-0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.06	0.06	-0.04	25	50%	0.13	3	-0.08	12	83%	-0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	12	69%	0.12	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Hurley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	8	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	15	58%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Mark Hendrickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	6	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	1	0%	-0.07	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.05
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.09	-0.11	0.04	8	19%	-0.20	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	24.3	15.6	25.2	2.5	41.2	134.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +27.2%

SAS +0.6%

SAS +37.9%

SAC -15.9%

SAS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SAC	NBA	SAS	SAC	NBA
this game	15.3	14.8	15.6	106.2	103.2	102.5
season	15.9	15.2		100.9	98.5
opponent	15.3	15.9		104.3	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.4	16.5	14.0	13.9	15.3
SAC	15.3	17.0	12.1	15.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	81	79	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.31	18	-12	30	15.2	15.7	-0.50	14.9	14.1	0.82
Jaren Jackson	61	59	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.38	9	-3	12	15.0	15.9	-0.89	15.0	14.5	0.49
Chuck Person	76	72	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.40	6	0	6	14.2	19.5	-5.29	14.8	14.8	0.06
Avery Johnson	91	88	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.37	-1	7	-8	15.0	20.2	-5.16	14.4	21.3	-6.96
Tim Duncan	62	62	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.37	-6	12	-18	13.8	18.1	-4.36	14.6	15.2	-0.51
Reggie Geary	6	6	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.04	7	-1	8	20.2	15.0	5.16	21.3	14.4	6.96
Will Perdue	57	54	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.12	9	-3	12	17.6	12.1	5.50	15.2	14.3	0.86
Carl Herrera	6	5	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.04	-4	10	-14	17.7	15.2	2.49	13.6	14.9	-1.29
Vinny Del Negro	36	35	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.06	-3	9	-12	15.9	15.0	0.89	14.5	15.0	-0.49
Monty Williams	9	10	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.04	-5	11	-16	20.7	14.8	5.88	13.4	15.0	-1.59

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Hendrickson	13	15	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.10	4	-10	14	12.8	15.1	-2.38	12.5	15.8	-3.31
Bobby Hurley	28	29	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-5	4	15.2	14.6	0.61	19.1	13.7	5.43
Michael Smith	26	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-2	-2	15.6	14.5	1.10	19.5	13.5	5.97
Corliss Williamson	72	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.20	1	-7	8	14.5	16.0	-1.54	15.4	15.2	0.20
Olden Polynice	35	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	4	-14	16.3	14.0	2.29	18.3	13.5	4.84
Michael Stewart	54	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.34	3	-9	12	14.2	15.6	-1.36	14.4	16.5	-2.08
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	30	31	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.13	-8	2	-10	15.0	14.7	0.31	14.4	15.8	-1.39
Mitch Richmond	80	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-4	2	14.6	16.1	-1.56	15.4	14.9	0.47
Billy Owens	66	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.22	-8	2	-10	15.2	13.9	1.27	13.5	19.2	-5.73
Anthony Johnson	66	68	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	-1	-4	14.6	15.2	-0.61	13.7	19.1	-5.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.21,0.15,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 111, NJN 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.16,0.16,0.09,0	92.8%
HOU 94, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.6,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.45,0.16,0.04,0	91.7%
DEN 111, LAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.7,0.68,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.39,0.45,0.22,0.1,0.16,0	91.3%