NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	74		Excitement	7.4 [306]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +9.5%
Orlando Magic	69		Comeback	2.6 [500]		LVP	Rony Seikaly (ORL): -38.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.07	0.01	12	71%	0.20	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03
Monty Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.10	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Geary	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
David Robinson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	9	48%	-0.01	3	-0.11	7	86%	0.07
Avery Johnson	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	14	37%	-0.10	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.09	-0.13	-0.04	12	35%	-0.12	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Chuck Person	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.18	-0.11	-0.02	9	5%	-0.21	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	16	58%	0.11	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Lawson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	13	42%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	5	58%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	5	20%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	13	37%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	4	10%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Horace Grant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.13	-0.19	-0.02	10	20%	-0.16	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.38,-0.38	-0.38	-0.19	-0.20	-0.00	16	34%	-0.26	5	-0.12	3	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.4	25.3	15.8	24.4	1.7	32.2	122.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +45.9%

SAS +19.4%

ORL -1.6%

ORL -14.2%

SAS +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ORL	NBA	SAS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.1	18.3	15.6	84.1	81.2	102.5
season	15.9	16.7		100.9	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.9		101.4	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.2	14.3	15.3	13.5	15.1
ORL	15.5	19.3	19.1	19.2	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	72	70	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.32	7	-2	9	15.6	12.7	2.92	18.3	18.1	0.17
Chuck Person	64	63	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-6	17	15.0	15.3	-0.35	18.6	17.2	1.41
Jaren Jackson	69	66	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.46	2	3	-1	16.1	11.4	4.73	17.8	19.9	-2.09
David Robinson	65	62	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	1	3	15.3	14.5	0.76	17.9	19.4	-1.54
Avery Johnson	74	70	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.41	-2	7	-9	15.1	15.0	0.09	17.8	20.7	-2.91
Reggie Geary	14	15	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.05	7	-2	9	15.0	15.1	-0.09	20.7	17.8	2.91
Will Perdue	23	23	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	4	-3	14.5	15.3	-0.76	19.4	17.9	1.54
Carl Herrera	16	15	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	7	-9	12.7	15.6	-2.92	18.1	18.3	-0.17
Monty Williams	43	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.05	-3	8	-11	13.6	16.5	-2.93	18.5	18.1	0.37

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Lawson	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.03	-1	-4	3	16.0	18.3	-2.30	9.0	15.2	-6.22
Vernon Maxwell	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-8	11	0.0	18.3	-18.27	9.0	15.1	-6.15
Dan Schayes	31	33	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-2	-1	18.9	17.9	0.95	14.9	15.2	-0.27
Rony Seikaly	43	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-8	11	17.7	18.9	-1.21	16.2	13.8	2.39
Bo Outlaw	54	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-3	1	18.1	18.6	-0.59	16.1	13.5	2.53
Derek Harper	66	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-4	3	17.7	20.4	-2.77	14.9	15.8	-1.00
Gerald Wilkins	23	24	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	4	-13	20.2	17.5	2.67	14.8	15.2	-0.40
Darrell Armstrong	81	84	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-5	5	18.2	19.2	-1.03	15.3	9.5	5.85
Brian Evans	55	57	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.37	-6	1	-7	18.7	17.4	1.35	13.8	17.4	-3.61
Horace Grant	71	70	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.32	-9	4	-13	18.2	18.6	-0.45	15.0	15.6	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.58,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.45,0.55,0.34,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 91, BOS 89	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.57,0.47,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.53,0.73,0.68,0.46,0.25,0.15,0	92.2%
MIA 107, SEA 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.69,0.65,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.34,0.08,0	91.1%
PHI 109, MIL 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.57,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.32,0.05,0	90.8%