NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	7.6 [321]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +26.9%
Seattle SuperSonics	103		Comeback	3.1 [342]		LVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): -19.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.18,0.26,0.27	0.03	0.24	-0.00	16	59%	0.43	5	-0.16	17	76%	0.06
Jason Kapono	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.06	-0.00	12	76%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.05	0.01	7	71%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	-0.04	0.02	11	58%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0	0.06	-0.05	0.02	9	59%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Earl Barron	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.08	-0.07	0.04	9	78%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.14	0.02	17	70%	0.31	3	-0.07	6	67%	0.03
Nick Collison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.09	0.01	14	70%	0.25	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Gelabale	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.11	-0.11	0.05	-0.08	0.08	27	49%	-0.07	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	10	25%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2	-0.20	-0.06	-0.14	-0.01	7	53%	-0.03	4	-0.17	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.8	29.5	14.8	21.3	1.6	36.6	131.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.6%

MIA +10.8%

SEA -8.9%

MIA +21.5%

SEA -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SEA	NBA	MIA	SEA	NBA
this game	15.3	16.0	15.4	115.1	113.2	104.5
season	16.0	15.4		102.4	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.6		108.3	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	15.4	15.4	14.5	15.3
SEA	16.9	15.2	17.3	14.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	53	52	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.58	4	0	4	14.4	16.4	-2.01	16.0	16.1	-0.17
Dwyane Wade	75	73	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.42	3	1	2	14.9	16.8	-1.93	16.1	15.6	0.53
Udonis Haslem	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.43	2	2	0	15.2	15.5	-0.27	16.0	16.3	-0.36
Gary Payton	60	60	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	5	-6	16.0	14.0	1.94	15.6	16.9	-1.37
Jason Williams	58	57	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	1	2	15.7	14.5	1.23	16.9	14.5	2.40
Jason Kapono	65	64	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.30	-2	6	-8	14.9	16.1	-1.18	15.6	17.0	-1.37
Dorell Wright	16	15	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.08	5	-1	6	14.5	15.4	-0.94	15.5	16.1	-0.68
Earl Barron	18	17	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.06	4	0	4	15.3	15.3	0.07	16.6	15.9	0.76
Chris Quinn	3	2	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.04	2	2	0	14.7	15.3	-0.63	15.0	16.1	-1.06
Michael Doleac	40	39	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.19	0	4	-4	16.4	14.4	2.01	16.1	16.0	0.17

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Gelabale	22	23	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.10	2	-6	8	15.7	16.1	-0.40	16.6	14.8	1.77
Damien Wilkins	47	47	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.00	4	-8	12	16.2	15.8	0.37	15.1	15.4	-0.31
Johan Petro	31	32	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-1	-2	14.0	17.1	-3.03	13.9	16.0	-2.14
Chris Wilcox	82	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.38	-2	-2	0	16.3	13.9	2.38	14.8	18.9	-4.06
Nick Collison	69	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-1	-2	16.7	14.1	2.56	16.4	11.6	4.83
Luke Ridnour	53	54	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	5	-14	15.8	16.4	-0.67	15.4	15.1	0.30
Ray Allen	80	82	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.45	-5	1	-6	16.1	15.7	0.35	15.3	14.9	0.42
Earl Watson	71	73	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.51	-4	0	-4	16.2	15.5	0.62	14.8	17.0	-2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.69,0.65,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.34,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 113, NOP 109	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.52,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.42,0.64,0.59,0.4,0.53,0.39,0.32,0.08,0	92.2%
MIN 96, POR 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.16,0	91.6%
PHI 82, MIL 79	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.04,0	91.3%