NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	91		Excitement	9.2 [122]		MVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): +29.9%
Boston Celtics	89		Comeback	2.7 [346]		LVP	Gerald Green (BOS): -24.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronald Murray	0.16	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,0.16	-0.10	0.28	0.02	16	44%	0.33	5	-0.17	4	75%	-0.00
Amir Johnson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	14	71%	0.21	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	6	79%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ronald Dupree	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.08	0.00	7	50%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Rasheed Wallace	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Dale Davis	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	69%	0.11	5	-0.17	4	75%	-0.01
Carlos Delfino	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	8	45%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	-0.00	10	35%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.3	0.30	0.11	0.18	-0.00	11	70%	0.34	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.17
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	4	45%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.05
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.15,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.02	0.00	15	58%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Allan Ray	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.02	15	60%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	3	67%	0.02	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	0.01	17	41%	0.03	4	-0.14	7	43%	-0.08
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.15	-0.10	-0.00	10	23%	-0.08	3	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.6	29.1	16.4	23.4	2.6	38.2	134.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +45.1%

BOS -27.1%

DET +11.2%

DET +17.6%

DET +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	15.0	16.0	15.4	95.8	97.8	104.5
season	16.8	15.5		106.1	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.7		105.2	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.1	19.6	10.6	16.1	15.0
BOS	16.2	15.4	15.6	16.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Murray	77	75	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.46	4	-2	6	14.5	17.3	-2.85	16.4	14.1	2.24
Dale Davis	37	33	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.39	6	-4	10	14.5	15.4	-0.92	15.5	16.2	-0.76
Amir Johnson	74	71	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.45	3	-1	4	14.7	16.1	-1.38	15.8	16.6	-0.88
Ronald Dupree	63	61	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.45	2	0	2	14.7	15.7	-1.10	15.8	16.3	-0.55
Lindsey Hunter	46	44	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.46	-3	5	-8	17.2	13.0	4.22	15.9	16.1	-0.20
Carlos Delfino	67	63	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	-1	4	14.1	17.1	-2.96	15.6	16.9	-1.29
Antonio McDyess	14	14	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	1	0	14.9	15.0	-0.11	17.1	15.8	1.39
Rasheed Wallace	18	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	3	-4	16.4	14.7	1.69	15.6	16.0	-0.42
Tayshaun Prince	21	20	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	3	-4	16.1	14.7	1.38	16.6	15.8	0.88
Jason Maxiell	58	58	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	6	-10	15.4	14.5	0.92	16.2	15.5	0.76

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sebastian Telfair	35	35	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.10	5	-7	12	15.9	16.0	-0.09	17.5	13.5	3.99
Al Jefferson	73	75	0.23	-0.73	0.95	0.08	5	-7	12	15.7	16.9	-1.22	14.5	17.1	-2.63
Kendrick Perkins	62	65	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	4	-10	15.7	16.5	-0.76	14.3	16.5	-2.16
Leon Powe	23	25	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.45	0	-2	2	17.1	15.6	1.56	18.7	13.7	5.02
Gerald Green	35	37	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.44	-2	0	-2	16.0	16.0	0.01	16.5	14.1	2.36
Rajon Rondo	86	90	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	2	-6	15.9	17.8	-1.94	14.6	23.0	-8.42
Ryan Gomes	80	83	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.52	-3	1	-4	16.0	15.5	0.58	14.3	20.0	-5.70
Allan Ray	61	65	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.55	-5	3	-8	16.1	15.6	0.55	14.3	16.6	-2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.57,0.47,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.53,0.73,0.68,0.46,0.25,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 103, NYK 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.28,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.77,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.47,0.29,0.16,0.05,0	92.6%
DAL 83, NOH 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.71,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.36,0.17,0.27,0	92.6%
SAS 74, ORL 69	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.58,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.45,0.55,0.34,0.04,0	92.2%