NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	83		Excitement	8.9 [145]		MVP	Raja Bell (DAL): +4.3%
New Orleans Hornets	81		Comeback	3.2 [414]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (NOH): -50.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raja Bell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.05	0.00	16	35%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03	0.06	-0.08	0.02	22	52%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	0.00	3	67%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	16	38%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	11	40%	-0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.04
Steve Nash	-0.33	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.19	-0.15	-0.02	16	37%	-0.13	5	-0.20	8	87%	0.03

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	7	37%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	11	45%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	0.00	7	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	13	41%	-0.05	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	5	69%	0.06	3	-0.21	6	83%	0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.16	-0.16	0.09	-0.22	0.03	15	75%	-0.04	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.44,-0.5,-0.5	-0.50	-0.24	-0.25	0.00	17	21%	-0.43	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.0	31.0	15.7	26.1	2.6	28.6	129.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +21.2%

DAL +3.4%

NOH -15.2%

DAL +30.9%

DAL +9.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	NOH	NBA	DAL	NOH	NBA
this game	15.4	15.6	15.5	89.2	87.1	101.6
season	15.1	15.9		108.6	101.6
opponent	15.6	15.3		99.6	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.2	13.6	13.7	18.3	15.4
NOH	13.8	17.1	16.3	15.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	53	53	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.49	7	-5	12	15.0	15.8	-0.74	16.6	14.3	2.30
Steve Nash	75	74	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.46	4	-2	6	15.6	14.4	1.20	14.6	19.4	-4.79
Dirk Nowitzki	91	92	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	0	2	14.9	34.0	-19.05	15.7	10.0	5.67
Shawn Bradley	79	78	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.43	0	2	-2	16.0	11.9	4.03	14.8	20.1	-5.31
Michael Finley	76	76	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.41	-6	8	-14	16.3	11.2	5.11	15.1	17.8	-2.71
Adrian Griffin	20	20	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	-2	6	17.1	14.9	2.29	14.1	16.0	-1.93
Avery Johnson	4	4	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	1	0	14.2	15.4	-1.15	13.5	15.7	-2.21
Raef LaFrentz	39	41	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.07	4	-2	6	14.0	16.3	-2.33	18.6	13.3	5.27
Popeye Jones	3	2	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.04	-2	4	-6	24.3	15.1	9.28	13.5	15.7	-2.16
Walt Williams	10	10	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	2	-2	11.2	15.9	-4.66	15.2	15.7	-0.46
Raja Bell	15	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	6	-10	12.3	15.9	-3.68	18.6	15.0	3.56

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stacey Augmon	10	10	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.07	4	-6	10	13.3	15.9	-2.59	14.3	15.5	-1.18
George Lynch	30	31	0.16	-0.66	0.83	0.02	5	-7	12	15.3	15.8	-0.46	14.0	16.0	-1.98
Elden Campbell	33	32	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-2	2	17.3	14.7	2.62	13.2	16.5	-3.35
Courtney Alexander	39	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	4	-10	17.8	14.0	3.85	12.7	17.1	-4.45
David Wesley	72	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.48	4	-6	10	14.8	18.4	-3.64	16.1	12.8	3.25
Jamaal Magloire	63	64	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.52	-3	1	-4	14.8	17.2	-2.39	16.5	12.8	3.67
P.J. Brown	61	61	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.43	-6	4	-10	15.5	15.8	-0.26	16.0	14.2	1.83
Jamal Mashburn	70	70	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.49	-5	3	-8	15.9	14.7	1.16	16.1	13.2	2.84
Baron Davis	79	80	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.50	-7	5	-12	15.4	16.8	-1.38	15.4	15.1	0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.71,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.36,0.17,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 91, BOS 89	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.57,0.47,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.53,0.73,0.68,0.46,0.25,0.15,0	92.6%
OKC 109, BOS 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.53,0.5,0.52,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.46,0.53,0.46,0.32,0.04,0	91.7%
NOP 103, NYK 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.28,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.77,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.47,0.29,0.16,0.05,0	91.7%