NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	9.3 [82]		MVP	Glen Rice (CHH): +72.1%
Charlotte Hornets	99		Comeback	180.8 [8]		LVP	David Wesley (CHH): -20.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Murdock	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.04	0.15	0.00	2	125%	0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	9	55%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Jamal Mashburn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,-0.03,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	20	52%	0.10	3	-0.13	4	50%	-0.02
Terry Mills	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.08	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Dan Majerle	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09	0.00	-0.11	-0.02	8	50%	-0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	13	56%	0.07	5	-0.23	10	60%	0.02
Ike Austin	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	8	35%	-0.04	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Rice	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.72,0.72	0.72	0.17	0.56	0.01	23	74%	0.84	4	-0.12	11	91%	0.08
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	5	79%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.09	0.00	8	31%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.03	13	61%	0.02	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.04
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Beck	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Phills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	13	36%	-0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.09	0.02	6	33%	-0.10	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.4	2.0	24.2	15.4	24.4	2.5	36.8	0.8	21.0	149.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	1.6	18.4	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +35.3%

CHH +11.3%

MIA -7.4%

CHH +11.8%

MIA -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHH	NBA	MIA	CHH	NBA
this game	17.2	17.4	15.6	94.6	108.8	102.5
season	15.8	15.7		104.7	104.0
opponent	15.9	16.2		102.6	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	16.6	17.0	19.4	16.8	15.4	17.2
CHH	17.7	17.3	15.8	19.3	16.2	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	69	70	0.51	-1.01	1.52	0.21	10	-21	31	16.1	20.5	-4.37	18.1	14.7	3.43
Eric Murdock	33	30	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.03	2	-13	15	18.2	16.7	1.50	18.1	17.0	1.07
Jamal Mashburn	24	24	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-8	5	18.3	16.8	1.51	17.7	17.2	0.54
Terry Mills	6	5	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.13	-5	-6	1	23.5	16.8	6.72	14.8	17.5	-2.70
Ike Austin	31	30	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	0	-11	19.1	16.3	2.77	15.3	18.4	-3.06
P.J. Brown	76	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	-3	-5	17.7	15.1	2.57	18.0	14.2	3.84
Dan Majerle	57	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-4	-3	17.0	17.6	-0.56	17.4	17.3	0.08
Voshon Lenard	46	46	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.12	-18	7	-25	17.9	16.6	1.34	16.3	18.4	-2.07
Tim Hardaway	78	77	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	-1	-9	16.7	19.8	-3.08	17.8	15.1	2.69
Keith Askins	45	43	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.53	-5	-6	1	15.2	19.1	-3.95	16.2	18.4	-2.17

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vlade Divac	65	67	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.29	15	-4	19	17.8	16.3	1.52	17.7	16.0	1.69
Dell Curry	41	43	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.35	11	0	11	16.6	18.0	-1.39	18.6	16.0	2.54
Glen Rice	83	85	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.20	12	-1	13	17.3	18.2	-0.98	17.4	14.7	2.70
Anthony Mason	83	85	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.17	13	-2	15	17.7	13.7	3.95	17.6	12.7	4.89
B.J. Armstrong	42	44	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.01	15	-4	19	15.5	18.9	-3.44	17.2	17.2	0.02
Bobby Phills	41	40	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.01	6	5	1	17.1	17.5	-0.42	15.5	18.5	-2.92
Corey Beck	6	6	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	13	-15	18.8	17.2	1.59	15.0	17.4	-2.37
Matt Geiger	19	19	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	13	-15	15.4	17.9	-2.44	18.5	16.9	1.58
J.R. Reid	13	12	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.01	-8	19	-27	18.2	17.2	1.03	12.6	17.9	-5.32
David Wesley	62	64	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	-0.25	-5	16	-21	18.7	14.4	4.31	16.7	18.4	-1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.45,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.46,0.23,0.26,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.77,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 115, IND 122	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.84,0.7,0.59,0.72,0.47,0.21,0.15,0.26,0.46,0.53,0.78,0.85,0.98,1	90.8%
CHI 103, PHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.77,0.92,1	89.9%
MIN 103, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.67,0.46,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.75,0.72,0.84,1,1	89.4%