NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	93		Excitement	7.5 [297]		MVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): +10.2%
Detroit Pistons	89		Comeback	7.2 [68]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -13.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.09,0.09,0.1	-0.05	0.13	-0.02	16	53%	0.18	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.08	0.00	10	60%	0.15	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	12	50%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Carr	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	10	55%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stanley Roberts	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Micheal Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tom Gugliotta	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	15	47%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Terry Porter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	6	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Doug West	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	-0.04	0.10	-0.01	17	46%	0.12	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.03	0.02	17	69%	0.12	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.03
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bison Dele	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.02,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	16	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.07
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	3	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	11	32%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	-0.00	11	50%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	0.00	9	11%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	27.4	15.7	24.3	2.4	32.4	129.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +40.5%

MIN +1.0%

MIN +17.9%

DET -13.4%

MIN +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DET	NBA	MIN	DET	NBA
this game	16.1	14.7	15.6	101.1	93.7	102.5
season	14.8	15.9		105.3	102.8
opponent	15.9	15.7		101.1	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.8	16.1	17.1	15.2	16.1
DET	13.6	13.9	14.2	17.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephon Marbury	76	78	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.44	8	-4	12	15.1	20.9	-5.81	14.5	15.9	-1.45
Terry Porter	23	25	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.41	8	-4	12	16.5	15.9	0.59	16.9	14.0	2.89
Tom Gugliotta	81	84	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.51	4	0	4	15.5	20.5	-4.97	14.6	16.1	-1.52
Tom Hammonds	39	41	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.45	5	-1	6	16.5	15.8	0.71	15.6	14.1	1.47
Sam Mitchell	31	31	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.03	8	-4	12	17.5	15.3	2.22	17.5	13.4	4.16
Kevin Garnett	72	75	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.28	-4	8	-12	16.1	15.9	0.16	13.8	18.3	-4.56
Stanley Roberts	12	11	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.08	6	-2	8	14.0	16.4	-2.39	16.6	14.5	2.14
Doug West	35	35	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.16	4	0	4	17.8	15.0	2.83	17.3	13.2	4.06
Micheal Williams	7	7	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.02	-5	9	-14	19.7	15.8	3.94	13.1	14.9	-1.73
Chris Carr	43	45	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.06	-7	11	-18	15.6	16.5	-0.89	12.3	17.0	-4.71
Cherokee Parks	41	43	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.01	-7	11	-18	16.3	15.9	0.39	13.5	15.8	-2.34

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Sealy	22	19	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.04	7	-11	18	11.5	15.7	-4.29	18.3	15.5	2.76
Jerome Williams	34	32	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.11	-3	-1	-2	15.1	14.6	0.49	17.7	15.2	2.42
Eric Montross	12	14	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.07	-8	4	-12	17.2	14.4	2.86	14.7	16.3	-1.61
Jerry Stackhouse	35	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.13	-11	7	-18	16.9	13.5	3.39	16.5	15.8	0.66
Bison Dele	79	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.45	4	-8	12	14.7	15.2	-0.53	16.2	15.6	0.55
Grant Hill	84	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.43	2	-6	8	14.5	16.3	-1.73	16.1	15.9	0.18
Joe Dumars	72	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.46	0	-4	4	14.7	14.7	0.01	15.7	17.2	-1.45
Grant Long	60	59	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	14.9	14.4	0.50	16.2	15.9	0.26
Lindsey Hunter	77	75	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.43	-8	4	-12	14.4	16.4	-2.09	15.0	20.6	-5.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.64,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.22,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 86, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.41,0.55,0.68,0.46,0.32,0.42,0	91.5%
ATL 82, MIA 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.6,0.69,0.36,0.24,0.15,0	91.1%
ORL 106, NYK 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.82,0.85,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.53,0.45,0.22,0.02,0	91.0%