NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	81		Excitement	2.5 [1190]		MVP	Erick Dampier (GSW): +3.3%
Denver Nuggets	69		Comeback	1.0 [462]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (DEN): -8.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Dampier	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	12	59%	0.05	2	-0.02	8	62%	0.00
Joe Smith	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	12	47%	0.03	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Bimbo Coles	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	8	56%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	57%	0.03	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	8	50%	0.03	5	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	2	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Tony Delk	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	11	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	3	75%	0.03	5	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Felton Spencer	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Dickey Simpkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Harold Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kiwane Garris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.00	0.04	10	61%	-0.01	1	-0.01	11	91%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	13	34%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	5	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.12	0.00	-0.07	5	0%	-0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Priest Lauderdale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	5	42%	-0.03	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Washington	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	0.03	10	45%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	-0.06	15	33%	-0.03	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.5	27.4	15.5	25.4	2.3	23.6	121.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +38.8%

GSW +5.7%

GSW +8.7%

DEN -4.6%

GSW +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	15.9	15.2	15.6	87.1	75.0	102.5
season	15.6	16.2		92.9	96.7
opponent	15.2	15.0		109.5	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	14.7	15.5	19.6	15.9
DEN	15.6	14.1	15.2	16.4	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donyell Marshall	67	64	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.06	18	-6	24	15.5	16.9	-1.45	15.3	15.0	0.31
Joe Smith	69	71	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.01	16	-4	20	16.0	15.5	0.51	16.0	12.8	3.22
Erick Dampier	58	57	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.08	18	-6	24	15.5	16.5	-0.92	16.2	13.8	2.39
Brian Shaw	44	43	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.06	15	-3	18	14.3	17.3	-2.92	14.5	15.9	-1.43
Bimbo Coles	46	44	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	0	12	14.1	17.7	-3.59	14.9	15.6	-0.70
Muggsy Bogues	47	48	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	12	-12	17.7	14.1	3.59	15.6	14.9	0.70
Tony Delk	49	49	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	15	-18	17.3	14.3	2.92	15.9	14.5	1.43
Dickey Simpkins	19	19	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	14	-16	16.1	15.8	0.28	12.8	15.9	-3.10
Todd Fuller	10	9	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	12	-12	14.2	16.1	-1.88	10.6	15.8	-5.20
Adonal Foyle	31	30	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.26	-8	20	-28	16.3	15.7	0.66	14.9	15.4	-0.57
Felton Spencer	25	26	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.19	-6	18	-24	17.4	15.3	2.02	14.9	15.4	-0.51

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harold Ellis	9	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-12	12	10.6	15.8	-5.20	14.2	16.1	-1.88
Kiwane Garris	22	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-11	10	15.4	15.2	0.15	15.5	16.0	-0.48
Priest Lauderdale	22	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-11	10	14.6	15.5	-0.87	14.5	16.3	-1.81
Anthony Goldwire	37	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-13	14	15.1	15.4	-0.28	16.3	15.6	0.73
Danny Fortson	43	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	-7	2	15.1	15.4	-0.25	16.0	15.8	0.23
Johnny Newman	39	40	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.11	-13	1	-14	15.0	15.4	-0.43	14.7	16.8	-2.12
Tony Battie	52	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.26	-1	-11	10	15.8	14.5	1.37	16.7	14.8	1.93
LaPhonso Ellis	53	53	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-7	2	15.7	14.7	1.01	16.9	14.6	2.29
Eric Washington	61	61	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-6	0	15.0	15.7	-0.74	15.8	16.1	-0.32
Dean Garrett	59	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.03	-15	3	-18	15.6	14.6	0.96	15.8	16.0	-0.14
Bobby Jackson	63	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.02	-14	2	-16	15.5	14.7	0.87	15.8	16.0	-0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 92, TOR 74	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
GSW 94, ORL 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
MIN 119, CHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.31,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%