NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	92		Excitement	6.0 [583]		MVP	Terry Mills (MIA): +6.7%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	1.5 [754]		LVP	Steven Smith (ATL): -14.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Brown	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	7	67%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Greg Anderson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tyrone Corbin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ed Gray	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Christian Laettner	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	45%	-0.03	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	13	42%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	8	68%	0.02	5	-0.12	12	92%	0.04
Alan Henderson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	11	30%	-0.07	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	-0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	21	45%	-0.09	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	9	70%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	11	46%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	16	53%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	16	55%	0.05	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8	72%	0.07	3	-0.07	9	67%	-0.03
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	7	44%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.5	25.6	15.4	28.2	1.8	28.2	123.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +71.3%

ATL -13.4%

ATL -17.9%

MIA +12.1%

ATL -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	18.6	14.3	15.6	105.7	112.5	102.5
season	16.1	15.8		105.3	104.7
opponent	16.2	16.0		99.8	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	19.7	16.8	20.0	17.9	18.6
MIA	14.6	15.2	9.6	19.1	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Anderson	10	13	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.07	8	-15	23	15.6	19.0	-3.43	13.8	14.4	-0.54
Chucky Brown	48	48	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.22	5	-12	17	17.7	19.8	-2.06	15.7	12.6	3.17
Alan Henderson	44	44	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.29	7	-14	21	17.2	20.1	-2.84	14.3	14.3	-0.02
Ed Gray	14	15	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	-3	-1	16.5	19.0	-2.54	13.5	14.5	-0.93
Eldridge Recasner	80	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-4	1	18.8	16.9	1.93	14.6	11.3	3.28
Tyrone Corbin	39	40	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.08	-12	5	-17	19.8	17.7	2.06	12.6	15.7	-3.17
Steven Smith	80	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.28	-7	0	-7	18.8	16.1	2.71	14.2	15.5	-1.31
Christian Laettner	51	52	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.05	-15	8	-23	19.7	17.1	2.59	13.2	15.9	-2.77
Dikembe Mutombo	69	67	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.18	-14	7	-21	19.2	16.6	2.62	15.3	11.2	4.09

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	50	50	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.23	12	-5	17	15.4	12.9	2.53	18.6	18.6	0.02
Voshon Lenard	64	63	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.19	13	-6	19	13.9	15.4	-1.47	19.3	16.9	2.43
Tim Hardaway	68	66	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.23	10	-3	13	14.6	13.4	1.17	18.3	19.6	-1.24
Alonzo Mourning	56	56	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	-2	11	15.4	12.4	2.99	18.5	18.9	-0.42
Jamal Mashburn	73	73	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	2	3	13.8	16.6	-2.76	19.1	16.4	2.71
Dan Majerle	40	39	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	11	-15	16.1	12.8	3.33	16.3	20.5	-4.26
Ike Austin	38	38	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.08	-2	9	-11	12.3	15.8	-3.55	18.9	18.4	0.56
Eric Murdock	20	21	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	10	-13	13.4	14.6	-1.17	19.6	18.3	1.24
Terry Mills	31	29	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	12	-17	12.6	15.2	-2.57	19.1	18.4	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 85, PHX 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.62,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.98,1	94.6%
HOU 81, SAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.83,0.72,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.98,1	94.0%
LAL 96, MEM 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.9,0.88,0.83,0.89,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.99,1	93.9%