NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	6.8 [425]		MVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): +14.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	84		Comeback	2.0 [570]		LVP	Ray Allen (MIL): -40.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.02	5	70%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0	0.10	-0.10	-0.01	9	78%	0.16	1	-0.16	9	100%	0.06
Duane Causwell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	17	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.04
Keith Askins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.02	0.01	7	55%	0.05	3	-0.10	6	33%	-0.05
P.J. Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Murdock	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.23	-0.16	-0.10	-0.02	18	44%	-0.13	4	-0.11	12	58%	-0.06

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.10	0.01	22	61%	0.27	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Elliot Perry	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.02	8	83%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Ricky Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	3	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	5	50%	-0.01	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.00
Andrew Lang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	2	42%	-0.07	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.03
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.21	-0.21	-0.01	-0.18	0.02	11	54%	0.01	2	-0.23	2	50%	-0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.4	-0.40	-0.11	-0.33	-0.04	14	37%	-0.01	3	-0.39	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.0	29.1	14.8	29.0	1.5	34.0	133.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -5.3%

MIA +6.6%

MIL -3.2%

MIA +47.8%

MIA +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	14.8	17.9	15.6	100.0	94.4	102.5
season	15.8	16.0		104.7	101.1
opponent	15.1	16.2		102.8	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.5	18.8	13.9	13.7	14.8
MIL	19.2	20.1	15.4	17.7	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Austin	69	71	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.41	6	-3	9	14.6	15.2	-0.58	17.7	18.8	-1.06
Voshon Lenard	73	74	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.30	5	-2	7	14.7	15.1	-0.37	17.2	21.6	-4.41
Tim Hardaway	80	82	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.36	3	0	3	14.4	19.3	-4.92	17.9	18.9	-1.00
Jamal Mashburn	48	47	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.21	7	-4	11	14.1	15.6	-1.51	19.0	16.7	2.35
Keith Askins	49	51	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	3	-3	14.9	14.6	0.23	18.1	17.7	0.48
Eric Murdock	22	25	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	3	-3	15.8	14.4	1.36	18.7	17.6	1.09
Terry Mills	29	30	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	-2	7	15.1	14.6	0.57	18.1	17.9	0.20
Duane Causwell	6	6	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	2	-1	13.0	14.9	-1.89	11.8	18.4	-6.54
P.J. Brown	59	59	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.03	-12	15	-27	15.6	13.0	2.59	18.4	17.0	1.36

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Smith	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-3	3	0.0	18.1	-18.14	0.0	14.8	-14.76
Armen Gilliam	11	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-2	1	20.1	17.6	2.46	18.8	14.1	4.73
Ricky Pierce	23	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	0	-3	17.3	18.2	-0.91	15.1	14.6	0.44
Ray Allen	72	73	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-9	15	18.0	17.8	0.21	14.8	14.6	0.22
Andrew Lang	26	24	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	0	-3	17.4	18.1	-0.72	15.5	14.5	0.97
Elliot Perry	66	63	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.30	2	-5	7	18.3	16.9	1.37	14.6	15.2	-0.56
Tyrone Hill	68	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-5	7	17.9	17.9	0.04	14.6	15.2	-0.64
Michael Curry	29	29	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	5	-13	18.4	17.7	0.66	15.6	14.3	1.24
Ervin Johnson	66	65	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	2	-7	17.8	18.3	-0.44	14.0	17.0	-3.06
Glenn Robinson	83	80	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.39	-5	2	-7	17.8	19.5	-1.68	14.4	19.0	-4.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.6,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.32,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.04,0,0.01,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 122, NOP 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.09,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%
MIN 85, DEN 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0	93.3%
MIA 81, ORL 59	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.17,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%