NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	81		Excitement	6.1 [560]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +8.9%
Orlando Magic	59		Comeback	2.5 [323]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -25.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.05	0.02	12	69%	0.17	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0.03	7	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	10	48%	0.02	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
A.C. Green	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	12	40%	-0.03	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.03	0.04	6	38%	-0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	13	54%	0.03	6	-0.15	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Mason	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.18	-0.05	-0.01	12	27%	-0.20	1	-0.02	9	56%	-0.07

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bo Outlaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	8	37%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	0.00	6	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.03
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	8	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	2	0%	-0.10	2	0.01	2	0%	-0.05
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	8	37%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.04	7	0%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	7	53%	-0.02	4	-0.14	3	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.20	-0.09	-0.04	27	33%	-0.17	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.0	30.7	18.8	29.2	2.5	27.5	135.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.9%

MIA +23.2%

ORL -8.0%

MIA +4.3%

ORL -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.3	16.4	15.5	89.0	64.8	100.9
season	16.3	14.6		98.4	101.6
opponent	15.8	16.1		100.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.0	17.7	14.9	17.1	15.3
ORL	16.2	18.3	14.5	17.1	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	55	53	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.11	22	0	22	14.8	15.9	-1.10	15.8	17.2	-1.40
A.C. Green	61	59	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.13	18	4	14	15.8	14.2	1.52	16.2	16.8	-0.69
Brian Grant	52	54	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.19	19	3	16	15.2	15.3	-0.14	16.5	16.3	0.17
Tim Hardaway	54	55	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.21	19	3	16	16.1	14.0	2.16	16.9	15.7	1.16
Dan Majerle	53	50	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.06	13	9	4	15.3	15.1	0.21	15.8	17.1	-1.37
Anthony Mason	69	69	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	15	-8	14.9	16.5	-1.64	16.6	15.9	0.64
Bruce Bowen	54	55	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.01	5	17	-12	14.6	16.2	-1.58	16.9	15.6	1.39
Eddie Jones	57	60	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.06	7	15	-8	15.4	15.1	0.31	16.5	16.2	0.31

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	43	44	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.22	-7	-15	8	16.2	16.5	-0.31	15.6	14.9	0.65
Michael Doleac	20	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.10	0	-22	22	15.5	16.6	-1.08	17.9	14.4	3.50
John Amaechi	40	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-23	24	16.4	16.4	0.01	13.2	16.8	-3.57
Andrew DeClercq	25	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.07	-9	-13	4	19.1	15.4	3.76	15.7	15.1	0.65
Tracy McGrady	78	76	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.20	-14	-8	-6	16.1	18.2	-2.14	15.7	12.8	2.94
Bo Outlaw	66	64	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.32	-19	-3	-16	16.0	17.4	-1.38	14.9	16.0	-1.12
Monty Williams	45	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-16	10	16.0	16.7	-0.69	14.1	16.4	-2.27
Troy Hudson	37	37	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.15	-16	-6	-10	16.0	16.7	-0.71	14.5	15.8	-1.25
Pat Garrity	38	40	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.18	-22	0	-22	16.5	16.3	0.18	16.6	14.2	2.45
Darrell Armstrong	63	63	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.02	-18	-4	-14	16.9	15.2	1.65	15.3	15.1	0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.17,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 95, HOU 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.3,0.35,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.02,0	94.0%
CHI 100, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.29,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.3%
MIA 87, MIL 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.6,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.32,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.04,0,0.01,0.08,0	93.2%