NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	100		Excitement	6.1 [577]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): +17.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	94		Comeback	2.2 [535]		LVP	Al Jefferson (MIN): -13.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.05	0.02	12	71%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	0.11	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.03	0.02	7	82%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Jannero Pargo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ronald Murray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	44%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Hakim Warrick	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	13	38%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	17	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Brad Miller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	10	35%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
James Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	17	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	14	57%	-0.08

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.00	4	90%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.06	11	38%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.03	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	150%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	11	39%	-0.03	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	0.07	18	46%	-0.08	1	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01
Jonny Flynn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	0.03	13	50%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	13	38%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	3.3	28.6	15.6	25.6	2.5	36.6	134.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +18.9%

CHI +5.5%

CHI +11.0%

CHI +11.4%

CHI +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIN	NBA	CHI	MIN	NBA
this game	15.0	14.2	15.3	102.0	94.9	106.0
season	14.7	14.7		101.9	100.1
opponent	14.8	15.7		109.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.4	17.0	13.7	16.1	15.0
MIN	14.8	13.8	16.3	12.1	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Rose	81	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.22	8	-2	10	14.7	16.8	-2.10	14.0	15.0	-0.96
Brad Miller	73	75	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.25	7	-1	8	15.2	14.4	0.85	13.8	15.5	-1.75
Hakim Warrick	63	61	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.29	5	1	4	14.3	16.3	-2.00	14.7	13.4	1.37
Ronald Murray	38	37	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	-2	10	14.6	15.3	-0.69	14.9	13.8	1.09
Kirk Hinrich	78	79	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.34	0	6	-6	15.2	14.2	1.04	14.2	14.3	-0.11
James Johnson	13	13	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.05	5	1	4	13.5	15.3	-1.72	13.9	14.3	-0.33
Luol Deng	74	76	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	6	-6	15.0	15.1	-0.12	13.7	15.8	-2.05
Taj Gibson	53	55	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.11	-1	7	-8	15.8	14.1	1.70	14.3	14.1	0.26
Jannero Pargo	17	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	8	-10	17.3	14.6	2.74	15.6	13.9	1.64

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	42	41	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.08	2	-8	10	15.6	13.2	2.48	14.7	15.3	-0.64
Damien Wilkins	47	45	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-10	14	13.8	14.6	-0.73	15.8	14.4	1.46
Corey Brewer	64	63	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-8	10	13.6	15.4	-1.84	14.7	15.6	-0.84
Jonny Flynn	65	63	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.17	1	-7	8	13.6	15.3	-1.69	15.0	15.1	-0.09
Ryan Gomes	64	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.25	-2	-4	2	13.3	15.9	-2.63	15.5	14.2	1.25
Sasha Pavlovic	19	21	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-1	-4	13.1	14.5	-1.43	15.5	14.9	0.63
Ramon Sessions	34	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.15	-7	1	-8	15.3	13.6	1.69	15.1	15.0	0.09
Wayne Ellington	35	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.12	-8	2	-10	15.4	13.6	1.84	15.6	14.7	0.84
Ryan Hollins	56	54	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	6	-18	15.6	12.5	3.09	14.1	16.2	-2.13
Al Jefferson	69	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	-1	-4	13.7	15.4	-1.70	14.9	15.3	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.29,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 104, PHX 97	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.33,0.22,0.17,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0	93.9%
MIA 81, ORL 59	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.17,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	93.3%
TOR 104, PHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.1%