NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	5.1 [756]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +16.1%
Indiana Pacers	104		Comeback	2.2 [516]		LVP	Ike Austin (MIA): -18.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.07,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.03	-0.00	18	65%	0.16	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.02	0.03	8	69%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	6	37%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	6	53%	0.02	2	-0.06	5	20%	-0.03
Jamal Mashburn	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	12	56%	0.03	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.03
Dan Majerle	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	12	37%	-0.06	4	-0.12	3	67%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rik Smits	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	-0.00	23	62%	0.19	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.03	0.05	14	78%	0.18	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.06
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	65%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	8	58%	0.05	4	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01
Mark Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	5	29%	-0.08	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	29.5	16.6	24.1	2.8	32.0	131.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +7.9%

IND +21.1%

IND +15.4%

IND +5.4%

IND +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	14.6	17.6	15.6	100.0	115.6	102.5
season	15.8	16.0		104.7	105.3
opponent	16.1	16.2		99.2	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.0	14.3	15.3	15.8	14.6
IND	16.4	17.0	18.2	19.2	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duane Causwell	13	13	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.07	4	-19	23	17.5	14.1	3.41	19.4	17.3	2.07
Mark Strickland	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-15	15	20.3	14.3	5.98	16.0	17.7	-1.67
Charles Smith	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-15	15	19.5	14.4	5.06	16.0	17.7	-1.67
Dan Majerle	20	20	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-13	11	14.7	14.5	0.26	16.6	17.9	-1.24
Terry Mills	33	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-15	15	14.8	14.4	0.47	18.4	17.2	1.23
Eric Murdock	31	30	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	-7	-1	14.6	14.5	0.10	18.2	17.3	0.88
Jamal Mashburn	75	76	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	-6	-3	14.7	13.9	0.74	18.1	15.2	2.84
Voshon Lenard	59	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	-5	-5	14.1	15.4	-1.33	17.9	17.0	0.85
Ike Austin	69	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.09	-17	2	-19	14.2	15.7	-1.48	17.1	19.5	-2.49
Tim Hardaway	73	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.11	-12	-3	-9	14.5	14.7	-0.17	17.2	19.3	-2.07
P.J. Brown	67	68	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	0.02	-21	6	-27	14.0	16.3	-2.29	17.3	18.6	-1.30

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Miller	77	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.02	18	-3	21	17.2	20.2	-3.06	14.0	17.3	-3.25
Mark Jackson	77	75	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.08	21	-6	27	17.0	21.3	-4.32	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Dale Davis	50	51	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.09	14	1	13	19.1	15.7	3.40	15.4	13.4	1.97
Rik Smits	65	65	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.08	16	-1	17	17.1	18.8	-1.70	14.2	15.5	-1.36
Chris Mullin	65	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	2	11	16.8	19.7	-2.86	14.0	16.2	-2.21
Jalen Rose	25	24	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	13	-11	19.7	16.8	2.86	16.2	14.0	2.21
Antonio Davis	55	52	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.11	1	14	-13	17.0	18.6	-1.57	14.3	14.9	-0.54
Mark Pope	10	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.00	-1	16	-17	16.5	17.7	-1.25	13.8	14.6	-0.85
Travis Best	13	14	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.14	-6	21	-27	21.3	17.0	4.32	15.1	14.4	0.70
Fred Hoiberg	13	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	18	-21	20.2	17.2	3.06	17.3	14.0	3.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 83, HOU 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
MEM 83, DEN 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.46,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
LAC 81, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.94,0.81,0.88,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%