NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	83		Excitement	4.5 [903]		MVP	Aaron Brooks (HOU): +7.0%
Houston Rockets	95		Comeback	2.2 [825]		LVP	Brandon Roy (POR): -13.2%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sergio Rodriguez	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	58%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	8	61%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Channing Frye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	67%	0.05	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	26	41%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	5	40%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	-0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.04	0.02	13	42%	-0.09	2	-0.05	10	50%	-0.07

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	2	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luis Scola	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.03	8	55%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	12	65%	0.13	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.01	0.04	11	71%	0.17	5	-0.13	13	85%	0.02
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	37%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	15	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.07	-0.03	0.09	7	79%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	26.4	15.7	25.2	2.7	33.3	128.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +24.6%

HOU +23.3%

POR -1.5%

HOU +1.1%

HOU +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	HOU	NBA	POR	HOU	NBA
this game	17.0	15.9	15.4	95.4	108.0	105.7
season	16.7	16.2		105.5	104.6
opponent	15.2	15.4		100.3	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.0	17.0	19.6	15.6	17.0
HOU	17.6	15.8	14.0	16.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	8	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-16	20	10.2	17.7	-7.42	16.1	15.9	0.23
Joel Przybilla	38	39	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-12	12	17.8	16.4	1.38	15.9	16.0	-0.11
Travis Outlaw	52	52	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-12	12	15.3	19.5	-4.23	17.0	14.4	2.61
Steve Blake	52	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-12	12	16.9	17.1	-0.11	16.3	15.4	0.97
Sergio Rodriguez	20	20	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-7	2	16.4	17.2	-0.76	17.1	15.6	1.51
Jarrett Jack	34	35	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	-2	-8	16.9	17.0	-0.13	15.3	16.3	-1.03
Brandon Roy	69	70	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	-3	-6	17.3	15.9	1.39	15.7	16.9	-1.20
Martell Webster	52	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.06	-9	-3	-6	17.5	16.3	1.22	15.2	17.1	-1.98
Channing Frye	33	34	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.02	-15	3	-18	18.4	16.1	2.22	15.8	16.0	-0.27
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.01	-16	4	-20	17.5	13.1	4.39	15.8	17.1	-1.32

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	73	72	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.02	17	-5	22	15.9	16.0	-0.08	17.4	14.9	2.56
Yao Ming	67	66	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.05	18	-6	24	15.6	17.0	-1.34	17.6	15.1	2.50
Rafer Alston	69	70	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	-2	16	15.6	17.0	-1.36	17.6	14.5	3.13
Luis Scola	56	56	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.01	10	2	8	15.9	16.0	-0.11	18.2	14.9	3.29
Bonzi Wells	39	39	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	1	10	16.4	15.6	0.81	16.8	17.1	-0.26
Shane Battier	67	66	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.01	9	3	6	15.7	16.7	-0.97	17.2	16.4	0.74
Carl Landry	27	27	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.26	0	12	-12	15.5	16.1	-0.60	15.9	17.5	-1.59
Aaron Brooks	19	17	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	14	-16	17.0	15.6	1.36	14.5	17.6	-3.13
Mike James	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	18	-24	17.6	15.8	1.77	8.4	17.5	-9.11
Steve Novak	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	18	-24	17.6	15.8	1.77	8.4	17.5	-9.11
Charles Hayes	13	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	17	-22	17.2	15.7	1.52	14.7	17.4	-2.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 92, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1	95.5%
ATL 105, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.88,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.3%
MIA 89, IND 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%