NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	5.2 [756]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +8.7%
Dallas Mavericks	95		Comeback	2.1 [772]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -14.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09	0.03	0.03	-0.03	17	67%	0.21	4	-0.12	11	73%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	14	58%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0	0.02	0.00	0.03	3	80%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	12	43%	-0.07	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Malik Rose	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	7	31%	-0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	13	30%	-0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	83%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	19	54%	0.04	1	-0.02	10	100%	0.04
Shawn Bradley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	56%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	25	42%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.07	17	40%	-0.00	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	9	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.04
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	493.4	2.8	30.2	19.4	29.3	3.4	36.8	615.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +7.3%

DAL +21.6%

DAL +10.0%

DAL +10.9%

DAL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	14.8	15.0	15.7	96.8	96.9	100.5
season	15.9	14.6		100.1	109.2
opponent	15.6	15.8		105.0	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.6	15.5	15.4	13.0	14.8
DAL	15.7	14.5	15.3	14.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Brown	19	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.40	13	-16	29	12.7	15.4	-2.67	15.6	14.9	0.76
Anthony Carter	23	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	0	-3	14.9	14.8	0.12	15.8	14.8	1.03
Robert Horry	14	16	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	5	-13	15.3	14.7	0.54	13.1	15.4	-2.27
Rasho Nesterovic	65	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.41	7	-10	17	14.7	15.2	-0.51	15.3	14.4	0.97
Bruce Bowen	59	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	4	-11	15.9	13.1	2.75	15.0	15.1	-0.14
Malik Rose	29	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	8	-19	15.5	14.5	0.95	15.3	14.9	0.36
Tim Duncan	82	84	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.51	6	-9	15	14.6	16.0	-1.37	15.0	14.9	0.19
Hedo Turkoglu	41	41	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.00	-12	9	-21	14.7	14.9	-0.20	14.7	15.3	-0.62
Tony Parker	72	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-3	3	14.8	14.9	-0.12	14.8	15.8	-1.03
Manu Ginobili	71	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.40	0	-3	3	14.6	15.5	-0.91	15.1	14.8	0.30

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	91	88	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.45	2	1	1	15.0	15.1	-0.13	14.8	15.4	-0.66
Dirk Nowitzki	87	84	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	0	3	14.9	16.2	-1.31	14.9	14.1	0.83
Antoine Walker	92	90	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.42	0	3	-3	14.9	17.5	-2.64	14.8	15.6	-0.82
Steve Nash	71	69	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.38	-3	6	-9	15.2	14.6	0.59	14.9	14.6	0.34
Eduardo Najera	22	20	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.25	-1	4	-5	15.6	14.8	0.79	12.6	15.4	-2.75
Travis Best	27	26	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	-3	9	14.6	15.2	-0.59	14.6	14.9	-0.34
Antawn Jamison	33	32	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.03	8	-5	13	13.3	15.9	-2.54	14.6	15.0	-0.39
Danny Fortson	26	25	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.01	4	-1	5	16.5	14.5	2.07	15.3	14.6	0.68
Shawn Bradley	41	41	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.20	-4	7	-11	15.8	14.5	1.31	15.8	14.1	1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 83, HOU 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
SAS 95, MIN 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
NJN 69, BOS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%