NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	5.0 [793]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +12.0%
Atlanta Hawks	81		Comeback	1.1 [398]		LVP	Steven Smith (ATL): -16.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	13	73%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Eric Murdock	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	-0.00	7	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.12	0.01	0.06	15	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.02	6	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	65%	0.09	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Mark Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	61%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Dan Majerle	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	14	34%	-0.03	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	14	55%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Chris Crawford	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	14	61%	0.09	6	-0.17	8	100%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	4	55%	-0.05	2	-0.04	12	58%	-0.04
Ed Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.03	-0.04	7	25%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	16	45%	-0.09	3	-0.08	6	33%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	29.3	17.4	23.5	2.4	26.4	125.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +35.2%

MIA +6.5%

MIA +0.1%

MIA +8.1%

MIA +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	16.6	16.5	15.6	110.2	94.2	102.5
season	15.8	16.1		104.7	105.3
opponent	16.0	16.2		101.5	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	15.7	18.3	16.5	16.6
ATL	18.3	16.4	15.1	16.3	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	76	74	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.03	15	1	14	16.2	18.8	-2.58	16.0	19.6	-3.58
Terry Mills	46	44	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.12	20	-4	24	15.5	17.8	-2.31	16.0	17.0	-1.02
Dan Majerle	31	30	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.11	8	8	0	17.4	16.2	1.26	17.1	16.2	0.92
Eric Murdock	23	23	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.06	8	8	0	17.1	16.4	0.66	17.6	16.1	1.51
Duane Causwell	30	29	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.11	5	11	-6	16.0	16.9	-0.91	14.5	17.5	-2.99
P.J. Brown	63	61	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	8	0	17.8	13.6	4.19	17.0	15.2	1.83
Jamal Mashburn	68	67	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	8	0	16.5	16.9	-0.45	16.2	17.5	-1.25
Voshon Lenard	60	58	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.11	10	6	4	16.1	17.6	-1.53	16.2	17.1	-0.90
Ike Austin	37	38	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	17	-18	16.4	16.7	-0.29	17.7	15.5	2.22
Mark Strickland	6	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.01	-1	17	-18	21.0	16.3	4.72	21.3	16.1	5.20

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Anderson	10	10	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	-13	10	18.6	16.2	2.38	19.7	16.2	3.49
Chris Crawford	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-12	8	11.5	16.6	-5.12	19.5	16.5	2.97
Randy Livingston	5	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.14	-5	-11	6	13.8	16.7	-2.87	18.3	16.5	1.86
Ed Gray	26	25	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.05	-11	-5	-6	17.1	16.2	0.83	18.2	16.0	2.29
Tyrone Corbin	57	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-10	4	16.5	16.6	-0.13	15.7	18.4	-2.65
Dikembe Mutombo	65	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-9	2	16.7	16.0	0.72	17.1	15.0	2.17
Christian Laettner	72	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.14	-6	-10	4	16.8	14.9	1.96	16.9	14.9	2.08
Steven Smith	72	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.14	-8	-8	0	16.1	18.6	-2.47	16.4	17.4	-0.94
Chucky Brown	43	45	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.04	-17	1	-18	15.9	17.1	-1.28	15.5	17.7	-2.19
Mookie Blaylock	78	80	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	-3	-10	16.7	15.0	1.65	16.2	21.0	-4.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.24,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 109, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.02,0.1,0.03,0.01,0	94.8%
SAS 106, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.36,0.41,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.1%
DET 101, TOR 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.23,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	93.8%