NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	96		Excitement	6.7 [438]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): +28.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers	93		Comeback	433.8 [4]		LVP	Shawn Kemp (CLE): -34.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.12	0.20	0.04	8	90%	0.30	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Brian Evans	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	10	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	45%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.02
Nick Anderson	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	10	45%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Mark Price	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	6	53%	-0.02	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.04
Derek Strong	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	23	37%	-0.10	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.03
Bo Outlaw	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13	-0.06	-0.09	-0.03	3	67%	0.03	4	-0.16	3	67%	-0.00
Rony Seikaly	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	13	38%	-0.03	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cedric Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	7	87%	0.13	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Greg Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.02	5	83%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	16	55%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.02
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	6	33%	-0.11	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	0.00	5	20%	-0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18,-0.18,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.27	-0.27	-0.09	-0.21	-0.03	19	44%	-0.03	4	-0.24	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.29,-0.35	-0.35	-0.18	-0.23	-0.07	25	33%	-0.33	2	-0.02	5	40%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	25.4	16.6	27.4	2.6	37.1	1.5	18.2	156.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	1.6	18.4	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +27.9%

ORL +9.7%

ORL +9.0%

CLE -6.4%

ORL +9.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	15.6	15.3	15.6	92.3	91.2	102.5
season	16.7	15.4		100.3	99.4
opponent	16.0	15.6		97.0	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	17.5	15.9	16.0	12.9	16.1	15.6
CLE	12.5	13.6	16.7	19.5	13.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wilkins	66	62	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.38	15	-12	27	15.5	15.8	-0.33	16.4	13.5	2.86
Derek Strong	67	64	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.37	14	-11	25	16.1	14.6	1.49	16.1	13.8	2.31
Darrell Armstrong	68	65	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.40	11	-8	19	15.1	16.5	-1.33	15.2	15.3	-0.05
Bo Outlaw	89	86	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.48	4	-1	5	14.9	19.8	-4.90	16.0	11.2	4.76
Brian Evans	28	25	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.03	11	-8	19	13.5	16.4	-2.83	18.7	14.1	4.58
Derek Harper	10	11	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.00	-3	6	-9	12.6	15.9	-3.33	13.1	15.5	-2.44
Mark Price	39	42	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.00	-4	7	-11	15.7	15.5	0.18	13.9	16.2	-2.31
Nick Anderson	38	39	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.03	-12	15	-27	18.0	14.2	3.77	13.2	16.5	-3.29
Horace Grant	52	55	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.03	-11	14	-25	15.5	15.7	-0.13	14.4	16.3	-1.88
Rony Seikaly	55	54	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	0.05	-15	18	-33	16.1	15.0	1.07	13.7	17.0	-3.28

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Graham	31	27	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.07	3	-6	9	12.3	16.5	-4.23	17.0	15.1	1.93
Cedric Henderson	46	47	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.01	4	-7	11	12.9	17.2	-4.36	15.4	15.7	-0.29
Danny Ferry	23	23	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.06	0	-3	3	13.0	15.9	-2.98	17.4	15.1	2.35
Mitchell Butler	15	15	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.03	1	-4	5	13.1	15.6	-2.50	18.3	15.2	3.11
Vitaly Potapenko	13	15	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.22	7	-10	17	11.4	15.8	-4.45	21.9	14.6	7.32
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	80	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.31	-3	0	-3	16.3	11.5	4.74	14.8	18.7	-3.84
Derek Anderson	72	74	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.43	-5	2	-7	16.5	12.3	4.25	14.8	17.7	-2.90
Wesley Person	77	77	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.40	-6	3	-9	15.8	13.6	2.15	15.4	16.3	-0.93
Shawn Kemp	86	87	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.41	-6	3	-9	15.8	12.2	3.58	14.8	19.8	-5.04
Brevin Knight	67	72	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.45	-10	7	-17	16.4	13.1	3.32	15.7	15.3	0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.84,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.46,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 120, ORL 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.93,0.85,0.85,0.5,0.25,0.15,0.33,0.07,0	94.1%
CHI 126, MIL 121	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.59,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.73,0.46,0.39,0.11,0.1,0.05,0	92.0%
MIN 105, DEN 97	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.97,0.91,0.46,0.55,0.29,0.11,0.01,0	90.8%