NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	126		Excitement	9.4 [112]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +43.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	121		Comeback	96.1 [12]		LVP	Mo Williams (MIL): -41.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.44	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.15,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.44	0.23	0.24	0.04	32	68%	0.57	4	-0.13	7	86%	0.02
Luol Deng	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.16	0.07	0.02	16	73%	0.23	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Adrian Griffin	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13	0.01	0.13	0.00	5	60%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03	0.01	0.05	0.03	15	64%	0.18	6	-0.15	6	83%	0.02
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	4	25%	-0.04
Malik Allen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	0.00	-0.12	0.00	2	50%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Duhon	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	7	36%	-0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.05	0.25	0.01	9	65%	0.34	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.21
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	9	65%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	10	50%	0.08	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lynn Greer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
David Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.15,-0.1,-0.07	-0.07	0.30	-0.34	0.03	32	71%	0.13	4	-0.21	9	89%	0.02
Charlie Bell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	12	33%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.41	-0.41	-0.20	-0.25	-0.04	19	37%	-0.11	7	-0.30	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	27.4	15.7	28.8	2.5	38.5	2.4	17.3	160.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +63.1%

MIL -15.8%

MIL -22.9%

CHI +21.6%

CHI +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	13.3	15.6	15.4	114.5	110.0	104.5
season	14.5	15.2		103.1	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.9		109.9	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	12.2	16.3	12.5	13.0	12.4	13.3
MIL	15.0	15.7	13.7	17.8	17.6	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adrian Griffin	42	45	1.16	-0.66	1.82	0.40	26	-21	47	13.6	13.1	0.54	17.7	14.2	3.42
Ben Gordon	97	98	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.12	19	-14	33	12.8	16.8	-4.06	16.0	12.7	3.34
Ben Wallace	85	82	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.73	-2	7	-9	12.9	14.5	-1.63	15.3	16.8	-1.53
Luol Deng	100	101	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	5	-5	13.6	10.3	3.26	15.5	17.0	-1.48
Kirk Hinrich	86	83	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.64	-9	14	-23	13.2	13.6	-0.41	15.1	17.2	-2.09
Malik Allen	15	17	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.44	19	-14	33	12.1	13.4	-1.31	19.6	14.9	4.66
Chris Duhon	40	39	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.19	0	5	-5	13.3	13.2	0.14	15.3	15.8	-0.52
Tyrus Thomas	51	50	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.04	-10	15	-25	13.5	13.1	0.42	14.7	16.4	-1.66
P.J. Brown	34	35	-0.48	0.98	-1.47	0.04	-18	23	-41	14.6	12.7	1.87	14.3	16.3	-2.04

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	54	52	0.36	-0.86	1.22	-0.02	13	-18	31	14.0	17.2	-3.20	13.9	12.7	1.25
Charlie Villanueva	56	56	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.16	-3	-2	-1	15.2	16.1	-0.88	14.2	12.3	1.97
Lynn Greer	8	9	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.06	-1	-4	3	12.0	15.9	-3.93	15.7	13.0	2.62
David Noel	6	6	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.08	-8	3	-11	13.5	15.8	-2.27	14.2	13.2	0.96
Mo Williams	102	102	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.50	4	-9	13	15.6	16.4	-0.79	13.2	13.9	-0.66
Andrew Bogut	89	91	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.30	-8	3	-11	16.0	14.1	1.86	12.9	14.9	-2.04
Ruben Patterson	81	80	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.47	-4	-1	-3	15.8	15.2	0.64	12.9	14.2	-1.29
Charlie Bell	62	63	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.46	-6	1	-7	17.2	13.6	3.62	13.5	12.9	0.61
Michael Redd	92	91	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.31	-12	7	-19	15.8	14.7	1.10	12.5	16.8	-4.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.59,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.73,0.46,0.39,0.11,0.1,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 126, SAC 123	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.64,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.86,0.58,0.46,0.48,0.1,0.05,0.07,0	92.5%
CHA 120, ORL 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.93,0.85,0.85,0.5,0.25,0.15,0.33,0.07,0	92.5%
POR 106, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.84,0.9,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.71,0.84,0.58,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.02,0,0	92.3%