NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	115		Excitement	3.2 [1111]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (SAC): +9.5%
Orlando Magic	89		Comeback	1.6 [85]		LVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): -7.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	16	68%	0.13	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	0.00	0.06	14	71%	0.05	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	7	71%	0.02	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	7	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Stewart	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	6	44%	0.00	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Kevin Salvadori	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Grimm	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	55%	-0.00	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Dehere	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0.02	5	67%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Billy Owens	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	14	43%	-0.02	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	17	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	5	27%	-0.00	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	72%	0.05	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.00	0.05	8	69%	-0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	9	43%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Mark Price	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	-0.04	9	37%	-0.00	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	5	57%	-0.01	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	0.00	11	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	31.3	15.7	26.6	2.5	20.6	123.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +29.0%

SAC +8.9%

SAC +5.6%

SAC +6.9%

ORL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	14.2	15.3	15.6	118.6	90.8	102.5
season	15.2	16.7		98.5	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.3		101.4	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.8	15.0	13.0	15.1	14.2
ORL	16.9	15.6	14.2	14.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitch Richmond	68	69	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.26	27	-1	28	13.9	15.0	-1.11	16.3	13.1	3.14
Corliss Williamson	58	58	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.31	26	0	26	13.1	15.9	-2.82	16.3	13.9	2.40
Billy Owens	73	74	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.18	18	8	10	14.3	14.0	0.30	15.2	15.7	-0.53
Olden Polynice	54	54	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.25	20	6	14	12.7	16.0	-3.34	16.4	14.0	2.36
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	46	46	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.30	19	7	12	15.2	13.3	1.88	15.7	15.0	0.74
Terry Dehere	60	61	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	22	-18	13.9	14.7	-0.79	14.1	17.3	-3.18
Michael Stewart	36	37	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.10	10	16	-6	16.2	13.0	3.24	14.9	15.6	-0.64
Lawrence Funderburke	43	44	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.13	10	16	-6	16.0	12.8	3.22	15.0	15.7	-0.71
Anthony Johnson	20	20	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	24	-22	13.9	14.2	-0.30	14.9	15.5	-0.56
Kevin Salvadori	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	28	-30	13.6	14.2	-0.69	13.2	15.6	-2.34
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	28	-30	13.6	14.2	-0.69	13.2	15.6	-2.34
Derek Grimm	9	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	28	-30	14.3	14.2	0.16	11.6	15.7	-4.17

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Evans	22	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.06	-3	-23	20	13.5	15.9	-2.32	16.7	13.4	3.29
Gerald Wilkins	38	38	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.18	-8	-18	10	14.7	15.7	-1.04	14.9	13.7	1.25
Mark Price	49	49	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.22	-12	-14	2	14.6	16.1	-1.55	13.7	14.6	-0.91
Nick Anderson	44	43	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-22	18	14.4	16.1	-1.70	13.7	14.5	-0.79
Horace Grant	57	58	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.32	-18	-8	-10	15.1	15.7	-0.54	13.5	15.2	-1.71
Darrell Armstrong	40	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	-20	14	15.4	15.3	0.05	15.1	13.6	1.58
Derek Strong	61	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.15	-14	-12	-2	15.0	15.9	-0.83	15.1	12.7	2.38
Derek Harper	27	26	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.18	-16	-10	-6	18.3	14.2	4.02	13.3	14.5	-1.15
Bo Outlaw	43	43	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.06	-12	-14	2	15.5	15.2	0.33	14.6	13.8	0.79
Anfernee Hardaway	57	56	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	-12	-2	15.5	15.2	0.30	13.6	14.9	-1.28
Rony Seikaly	52	52	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.17	-23	-3	-20	16.9	13.6	3.28	13.0	15.6	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 106, ATL 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
WAS 111, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0.01,0.04,0.14,0.01,0,0,0	96.1%
TOR 113, MIN 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%