NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	2.5 [1260]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +19.1%
Atlanta Hawks	85		Comeback	1.5 [983]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -7.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.19	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.31	0.01	0.13	21	88%	0.25	4	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	8	63%	0.09	1	-0.01	11	64%	-0.02
Mike Miller	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.09	2	80%	0.04	4	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	9	70%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.07	0.00	0.07	5	82%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	4	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	17	41%	0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	60%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.08	0.00	0.08	9	65%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	47%	0.03	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.09	-0.00	0.10	8	74%	-0.02	1	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	12	38%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	33.2	15.6	29.5	1.8	26.2	132.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.8%

MIA +8.8%

MIA +8.6%

ATL -7.9%

MIA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	15.8	16.6	15.5	117.8	96.6	105.7
season	16.0	16.5		109.0	104.0
opponent	15.5	15.6		105.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.3	16.3	16.2	17.5	15.8
ATL	17.4	18.0	17.3	13.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	60	60	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.46	32	-11	43	14.9	17.6	-2.75	18.1	13.2	4.87
LeBron James	58	56	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.31	23	-2	25	15.3	16.7	-1.33	17.2	15.4	1.78
Dwyane Wade	49	48	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.40	25	-4	29	15.4	16.2	-0.82	18.3	14.4	3.88
Jamaal Magloire	32	31	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	16	-11	15.3	16.1	-0.80	16.5	16.6	-0.03
Mario Chalmers	32	31	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.14	14	7	7	14.4	16.6	-2.11	18.4	15.6	2.86
Mike Bibby	46	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.14	13	8	5	16.2	15.4	0.85	16.1	17.1	-1.01
James Jones	41	40	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.27	-4	25	-29	16.2	15.4	0.82	14.4	18.3	-3.88
Mike Miller	44	44	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.29	-5	26	-31	17.0	14.7	2.35	14.9	18.2	-3.27
Joel Anthony	28	27	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.16	-1	22	-23	17.8	14.9	2.88	14.8	17.4	-2.58
Erick Dampier	30	29	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.40	17	4	13	14.5	16.4	-1.95	18.7	15.5	3.11
Eddie House	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	28	-35	17.6	15.4	2.16	12.9	17.3	-4.41
Juwan Howard	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	28	-35	17.6	15.4	2.16	12.9	17.3	-4.41

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hilton Armstrong	15	16	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.19	7	-28	35	12.3	17.4	-5.11	17.2	15.5	1.76
Jeff Teague	33	33	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.21	7	-28	35	13.8	18.3	-4.50	17.4	14.9	2.52
Damien Wilkins	40	40	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.34	10	-31	41	13.6	19.0	-5.44	18.3	13.8	4.59
Jason Collins	22	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-19	17	17.5	16.3	1.18	14.7	16.2	-1.43
Marvin Williams	50	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-16	11	15.4	18.1	-2.66	16.1	15.5	0.57
Zaza Pachulia	44	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-18	15	15.0	18.2	-3.18	16.1	15.5	0.53
Kirk Hinrich	44	46	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	-7	-7	18.0	15.1	2.91	15.4	16.2	-0.79
Joe Johnson	49	51	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.25	-21	0	-21	18.0	14.7	3.32	15.1	16.7	-1.62
Al Horford	52	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.38	-27	6	-33	18.5	13.8	4.63	15.4	16.3	-0.94
Jamal Crawford	44	44	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.33	-26	5	-31	17.6	15.5	2.09	14.9	16.7	-1.74
Josh Smith	47	51	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.47	-31	10	-41	18.7	14.1	4.67	14.5	17.5	-2.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 113, MIN 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
MIL 107, ATL 77	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
CHI 98, MIA 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%