NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	111		Excitement	3.5 [1129]		MVP	Larry Hughes (WAS): +10.0%
Orlando Magic	102		Comeback	1.4 [450]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -7.7%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.01	-0.03	18	62%	0.12	2	-0.02	12	83%	0.02
Gilbert Arenas	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.03	-0.05	16	69%	0.17	6	-0.07	13	92%	0.01
Damone Brown	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.02	-0.03	12	46%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Steve Blake	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	9	48%	0.02	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Laron Profit	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	1	25%	0.00	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Jared Jeffries	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	5	43%	0.00	1	-0.04	4	0%	-0.02
Kwame Brown	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	9	44%	0.03	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	5	80%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	8	44%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Kasun	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	11	59%	0.02	3	-0.05	7	100%	0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.12	0.02	-0.06	19	45%	0.02	5	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	-0.14	-0.01	-0.07	22	40%	-0.04	3	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	0.05	11	61%	-0.06	2	-0.02	14	57%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	1.8	30.0	15.8	33.5	1.7	38.6	148.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +48.4%

WAS +3.0%

WAS +7.0%

ORL -8.9%

WAS +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.5	12.6	15.5	107.8	100.0	104.0
season	14.7	14.3		104.7	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		105.1	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	17.0	15.9	14.1	15.3	15.5
ORL	14.3	16.8	10.8	9.8	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gilbert Arenas	80	82	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.24	4	5	-1	15.1	16.9	-1.79	13.2	10.3	2.87
Jared Jeffries	75	75	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.05	10	-1	11	15.7	14.9	0.75	12.4	13.3	-0.94
Damone Brown	41	38	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.09	15	-6	21	15.2	15.7	-0.47	13.2	12.2	0.96
Juan Dixon	46	44	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	6	-3	14.7	16.1	-1.37	12.6	12.6	-0.03
Etan Thomas	56	58	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.03	10	-1	11	16.1	14.7	1.38	13.1	12.0	1.03
Larry Hughes	88	86	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	5	-1	15.1	17.4	-2.25	12.3	14.0	-1.65
Michael Ruffin	48	46	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	10	-11	14.9	16.0	-1.13	12.0	13.1	-1.19
Steve Blake	24	24	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	5	-1	17.0	15.0	1.93	12.6	12.6	-0.03
Kwame Brown	53	54	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.13	1	8	-7	16.2	14.7	1.59	12.7	12.5	0.13
Laron Profit	4	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.12	-5	14	-19	17.7	15.4	2.37	4.0	12.9	-8.87

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Hunter	25	27	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-7	5	9.2	13.7	-4.57	11.6	16.8	-5.21
Andre Barrett	35	36	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.30	7	-16	23	10.7	13.6	-2.93	16.6	14.9	1.79
Dwight Howard	64	65	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.28	6	-15	21	11.3	14.7	-3.39	15.2	15.9	-0.66
Pat Garrity	12	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.13	-10	1	-11	16.3	12.1	4.22	13.7	15.7	-1.96
Mario Kasun	10	10	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	-1	-7	16.9	12.1	4.76	14.8	15.5	-0.75
Stacey Augmon	27	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.33	5	-14	19	14.7	11.8	2.90	15.5	15.5	0.06
Kelvin Cato	64	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.37	5	-14	19	13.0	12.0	0.97	17.2	12.6	4.60
Tony Battie	33	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	2	-13	13.8	12.0	1.83	15.3	15.6	-0.25
Grant Hill	61	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	3	-15	12.9	12.2	0.65	16.1	14.5	1.64
DeShawn Stevenson	85	85	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.14	-19	10	-29	12.5	13.2	-0.68	15.1	17.3	-2.18
Steve Francis	94	95	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-3	-3	12.8	10.2	2.56	15.4	16.9	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0.01,0.04,0.14,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 114, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
SAC 115, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
NYK 93, TOR 70	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%