NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	99		Excitement	8.9 [111]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +27.5%
Indiana Pacers	93		Comeback	8.4 [132]		LVP	Reggie Miller (IND): -45.7%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.28	0.11	0.17	0.00	18	62%	0.28	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Dale Ellis	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.3,0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.00	6	69%	0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Greg Anthony	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	4	70%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
David Wingate	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	6	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Hersey Hawkins	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08	0.00	-0.08	-0.01	8	52%	-0.08	0	0.00	7	100%	0.05
Jim McIlvaine	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	5	17%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Vin Baker	-0.18	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.18	0.01	-0.18	0.01	15	52%	-0.09	1	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Detlef Schrempf	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22	-0.08	-0.14	0.01	14	47%	-0.10	3	-0.12	6	100%	0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rik Smits	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.10	0.01	16	59%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	6	69%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.01	12	69%	0.16	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Mark West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.19	-0.08	-0.02	10	28%	-0.13	4	-0.12	5	20%	-0.05
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.28	-0.28	-0.02	-0.26	0.00	4	75%	0.06	3	-0.34	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.3,-0.46	-0.46	-0.11	-0.35	-0.01	17	50%	0.00	5	-0.46	10	90%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	24.5	15.6	27.3	2.5	32.5	127.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -18.1%

IND -0.2%

IND -7.1%

SEA +73.8%

SEA +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	IND	NBA	SEA	IND	NBA
this game	16.3	16.8	15.6	115.1	105.7	102.5
season	15.3	16.0		109.3	105.3
opponent	16.1	16.2		99.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	17.9	15.0	17.0	15.4	16.3
IND	16.4	17.8	15.8	17.4	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Kersey	36	37	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.29	8	-2	10	16.4	16.1	0.32	18.4	15.7	2.61
Vin Baker	72	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	2	2	15.8	18.8	-3.02	15.9	21.8	-5.88
Gary Payton	78	81	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.29	6	0	6	16.6	13.2	3.31	16.7	18.0	-1.26
Hersey Hawkins	52	54	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	0	6	16.6	15.8	0.76	16.6	17.2	-0.64
Greg Anthony	23	22	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-4	14	15.8	16.4	-0.59	18.2	16.4	1.79
Detlef Schrempf	71	71	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.32	-1	7	-8	15.2	21.5	-6.31	15.9	20.6	-4.64
Dale Ellis	39	41	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	1	4	17.1	15.6	1.50	18.2	15.7	2.54
Jim McIlvaine	18	19	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	8	-10	19.1	15.5	3.54	20.7	15.8	4.90
Aaron Williams	41	41	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.10	-6	12	-18	16.1	16.4	-0.26	15.4	18.1	-2.72

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred Hoiberg	4	4	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.00	2	-8	10	18.0	16.8	1.21	19.7	16.1	3.66
Travis Best	36	32	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.13	-4	-2	-2	18.4	15.8	2.62	18.3	15.0	3.33
Mark West	4	3	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-4	2	30.0	16.2	13.79	26.3	15.9	10.44
Jalen Rose	27	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-6	6	17.7	16.5	1.19	15.7	16.5	-0.80
Antonio Davis	36	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	-3	0	18.4	15.7	2.67	16.4	16.2	0.24
Chris Mullin	71	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-9	12	16.3	19.1	-2.82	15.8	18.3	-2.54
Dale Davis	73	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.37	2	-8	10	15.9	21.3	-5.42	15.9	17.9	-2.07
Rik Smits	62	63	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.38	-5	-1	-4	16.4	17.8	-1.37	15.8	17.5	-1.73
Reggie Miller	70	68	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.26	-14	8	-22	17.0	16.2	0.78	16.6	14.9	1.66
Mark Jackson	57	58	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.46	-9	3	-12	15.6	19.2	-3.58	15.7	17.5	-1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.89,0.78,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.47,0.66,0.53,0.64,0.77,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 91, TOR 86	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.53,0.71,0.62,0.45,0.57,0.28,0	91.8%
NJN 88, DET 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.55,0.57,0.42,0	91.5%
DET 111, PHX 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.79,0.79,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.66,0.79,0.63,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.55,0.77,0.42,0	91.2%