NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	112		Excitement	4.0 [968]		MVP	Terry Mills (MIA): +8.7%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	1.2 [465]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -9.9%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Farmer	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	92%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tony Delk	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	125%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Beck	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.07	4	64%	0.03	3	-0.01	3	33%	0.00
Dell Curry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	11	62%	0.06	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
J.R. Reid	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	8	57%	-0.00	1	-0.01	12	67%	-0.03
Glen Rice	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	0.00	0.03	17	65%	0.05	6	-0.10	9	67%	-0.01
David Wesley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	15	53%	0.00	5	-0.07	8	87%	0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.02	9	35%	-0.03	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	3	133%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	13	38%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	6	50%	-0.04	1	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	0.03	14	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	10	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	12	54%	0.02	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	9	46%	-0.01	4	-0.07	6	50%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.00	0.01	15	45%	-0.06	2	-0.04	10	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	26.3	16.6	28.8	1.8	33.3	134.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +43.5%

CHH +0.8%

CHH +6.1%

MIA -7.1%

CHH +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	MIA	NBA	CHH	MIA	NBA
this game	14.2	14.6	15.6	112.0	99.0	102.5
season	15.7	15.8		104.0	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.9		99.8	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	11.6	13.3	18.3	14.5	14.2
MIA	13.8	16.7	15.3	13.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Geiger	66	66	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	-1	15	14.2	14.0	0.20	14.1	15.8	-1.70
David Wesley	77	77	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	0	13	13.8	15.4	-1.66	15.3	12.5	2.75
Tony Farmer	30	28	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	6	1	11.7	15.2	-3.56	14.0	14.9	-0.89
Dell Curry	34	35	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.02	10	3	7	12.6	15.0	-2.38	15.5	14.2	1.35
Anthony Mason	73	71	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	9	-5	15.2	11.5	3.67	14.8	14.2	0.66
J.R. Reid	24	27	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.01	9	4	5	10.6	15.3	-4.71	13.4	15.1	-1.64
Glen Rice	70	72	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	7	-1	15.2	11.7	3.56	14.9	14.0	0.89
Corey Beck	67	66	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.14	2	11	-9	15.3	11.9	3.40	14.1	15.8	-1.70
Tony Delk	22	22	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	12	-11	14.5	14.1	0.44	12.8	15.2	-2.39
Vlade Divac	37	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	14	-15	14.4	14.0	0.39	16.2	13.7	2.47

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Todd Day	27	27	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.32	14	-27	41	10.6	16.1	-5.54	15.1	13.8	1.30
Keith Askins	11	10	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-12	11	13.9	14.7	-0.82	14.4	14.1	0.27
P.J. Brown	57	57	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-12	11	13.9	15.6	-1.73	13.5	15.0	-1.43
Ike Austin	64	66	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-9	5	14.3	15.2	-0.91	14.5	13.4	1.09
Tim Hardaway	61	61	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-9	5	15.1	13.9	1.18	14.9	13.0	1.90
Voshon Lenard	58	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-8	3	14.5	14.9	-0.37	13.0	15.7	-2.70
Dan Majerle	20	21	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.10	-13	0	-13	17.0	14.0	2.95	10.9	15.0	-4.18
Terry Mills	37	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-4	-5	15.9	13.9	2.07	16.0	13.2	2.79
Mark Strickland	36	37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.10	-9	-4	-5	14.6	14.6	-0.00	13.4	14.6	-1.20
Jamal Mashburn	71	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.11	-20	7	-27	15.6	12.3	3.33	15.3	11.3	3.99
Eric Murdock	58	57	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	0	-13	14.6	14.7	-0.09	13.4	15.2	-1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 103, MIA 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
SAC 106, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.32,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
ORL 97, MIA 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%