NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	85		Excitement	7.0 [413]		MVP	Theo Ratliff (DET): +14.1%
Detroit Pistons	92		Comeback	2.0 [1001]		LVP	Lindsey Hunter (DET): -22.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.01	12	70%	0.18	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	19	64%	0.14	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.05
Sherman Douglas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.05	-0.01	12	68%	0.09	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Chucky Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	62%	0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	4	43%	-0.10	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Johnny Newman	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.16	-0.04	0.00	5	25%	-0.08	5	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Vin Baker	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	11	17%	-0.16	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.06	-0.02	13	66%	0.14	1	0.00	12	92%	0.04
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	15	59%	0.14	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron McKie	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	14	55%	0.09	2	-0.08	5	80%	-0.01
Grant Long	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Litterial Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	10	41%	-0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22	-0.22	-0.14	-0.07	0.01	21	37%	-0.13	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	28.8	17.0	25.2	2.4	32.3	131.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -9.0%

DET +17.1%

DET +39.4%

DET +6.4%

MIL -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	15.4	17.5	15.6	97.7	104.5	104.4
season	16.0	17.1		103.9	107.6
opponent	16.2	15.5		102.0	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.8	14.2	18.2	13.5	15.4
DET	21.0	16.5	14.5	18.4	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Lang	18	19	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-2	-3	18.8	14.5	4.30	19.6	17.0	2.61
Elliot Perry	23	25	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-4	1	15.3	15.4	-0.09	16.9	17.8	-0.91
Johnny Newman	31	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-3	-1	15.4	15.4	0.03	16.1	18.3	-2.21
Chucky Brown	24	24	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-2	-3	14.3	15.8	-1.43	17.7	17.5	0.18
Vin Baker	68	70	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-3	-1	15.7	14.0	1.75	17.4	17.9	-0.52
Sherman Douglas	64	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-3	-1	15.4	15.3	0.09	17.6	17.4	0.16
Armen Gilliam	55	53	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.38	1	-8	9	14.1	17.6	-3.47	18.1	16.7	1.31
Ray Allen	71	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	-1	-5	15.3	15.6	-0.24	17.2	18.9	-1.64
Glenn Robinson	81	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	-2	-3	15.5	13.7	1.83	17.8	15.0	2.75

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	82	81	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	2	3	18.2	8.7	9.52	15.1	19.3	-4.26
Aaron McKie	78	76	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.29	6	1	5	17.5	17.8	-0.30	15.7	13.3	2.40
Theo Ratliff	74	73	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.27	4	3	1	17.8	16.2	1.57	15.6	14.1	1.55
Otis Thorpe	63	64	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.13	8	-1	9	18.2	16.0	2.20	15.7	14.5	1.15
Joe Dumars	64	64	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.13	7	0	7	17.7	17.2	0.45	15.9	14.0	1.92
Michael Curry	40	39	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	0	7	16.1	18.7	-2.68	14.8	15.8	-0.95
Jerome Williams	29	28	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	6	-5	15.7	18.4	-2.75	14.2	15.9	-1.65
Litterial Green	1	1	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.06	-2	9	-11	4.0	17.7	-13.69	4.0	15.5	-11.50
Grant Long	9	9	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	8	-9	18.6	17.4	1.14	14.7	15.4	-0.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.61,0.91,0.81,0.72,0.91,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 93, CHA 98	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.89,0.89,0.97,0.96,1	93.2%
MIA 95, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.78,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.53,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.9,0.91,1	92.4%
DEN 104, SAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.54,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.81,0.78,0.97,1,1	92.4%