NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	7.6 [173]		MVP	Eric Washington (DEN): +24.1%
Sacramento Kings	110		Comeback	2.3 [528]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -29.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Washington	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.17	0.06	-0.01	9	90%	0.24	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03	0.08	-0.01	0.04	17	59%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0.03	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	26	55%	0.08	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Johnny Taylor	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	4	20%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.28	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28	-0.14	-0.12	0.02	15	33%	-0.16	3	-0.11	3	67%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.29	-0.19	-0.13	-0.03	25	35%	-0.17	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.05	-0.01	7	79%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	10	64%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.09	-0.01	0.06	-0.05	10	59%	0.15	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	71%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.01	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Michael Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	11	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.14,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	22	49%	-0.03	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.12,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.22	-0.22	-0.05	-0.15	0.02	13	70%	0.06	8	-0.28	4	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.4	23.5	15.7	22.2	1.8	36.1	123.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +69.9%

DEN -15.3%

SAC +4.8%

DEN -10.6%

SAC +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	14.9	13.8	15.8	103.0	111.1	99.6
season	15.5	14.1		100.7	100.1
opponent	15.5	15.6		100.9	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.2	14.2	15.6	15.7	14.9
SAC	12.9	17.1	12.1	13.6	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carl Herrera	20	21	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.11	8	-14	22	13.2	15.4	-2.17	18.5	12.6	5.87
Johnny Taylor	32	32	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.16	7	-13	20	15.1	14.9	0.27	15.6	13.0	2.62
Chauncey Billups	75	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-6	6	14.7	15.7	-1.06	13.8	13.9	-0.04
Bryant Stith	52	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	5	-16	15.1	14.8	0.24	13.3	14.4	-1.06
Eric Washington	54	52	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	0	-6	15.3	14.5	0.80	14.3	13.3	0.97
Antonio McDyess	95	94	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.25	-10	4	-14	15.3	9.7	5.61	13.7	17.2	-3.53
Nick Van Exel	91	89	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.31	-9	3	-12	14.7	17.4	-2.73	13.1	20.5	-7.40
Danny Fortson	86	82	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	3	-12	15.1	13.9	1.26	13.0	17.8	-4.80

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Webber	92	93	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.36	8	-2	10	13.3	21.4	-8.16	15.4	9.9	5.50
Vlade Divac	81	84	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.25	9	-3	12	13.4	15.8	-2.43	15.3	13.0	2.33
Jason Williams	78	80	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.19	10	-4	14	12.9	17.4	-4.48	14.6	16.1	-1.52
Peja Stojakovic	48	50	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.31	-1	7	-8	15.5	12.3	3.17	14.7	15.2	-0.44
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	59	59	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	-1	8	12.6	15.7	-3.11	14.6	15.4	-0.84
Vernon Maxwell	40	42	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	7	-8	15.7	12.6	3.11	15.4	14.6	0.84
Corliss Williamson	51	51	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	-1	8	12.3	15.5	-3.17	15.2	14.7	0.44
Jon Barry	11	12	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	5	-4	13.2	13.9	-0.75	16.6	14.7	1.86
Michael Hawkins	11	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	9	-12	20.1	13.1	7.02	13.3	15.1	-1.87
Lawrence Funderburke	24	23	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.09	-7	13	-20	18.1	12.5	5.59	12.8	15.6	-2.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.54,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.81,0.78,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 93, CHA 98	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.89,0.89,0.97,0.96,1	94.1%
CLE 85, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.97,0.99,1	93.2%
CLE 79, PHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.8,0.93,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.74,0.9,0.98,1,1	93.2%