NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	7.1 [369]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +28.7%
Detroit Pistons	100		Comeback	2.5 [1066]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -14.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0.19	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.12	0.02	9	70%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ricky Davis	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13	0.13	-0.01	-0.01	10	87%	0.29	3	-0.15	3	67%	-0.02
Daequan Cook	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.02	10	64%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Alexander Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	8	55%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.02
Jason Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14	-0.02	-0.14	-0.02	25	51%	0.16	4	-0.30	9	89%	0.06

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.33,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.14	0.15	0.01	15	67%	0.33	1	-0.05	9	78%	0.03
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.10	0.00	5	70%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	7	71%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	10	52%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.03
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	17	51%	0.07	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	0.03	10	54%	-0.02	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.05
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	29.6	16.7	24.2	2.4	43.5	143.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -3.1%

DET +4.9%

DET +16.1%

DET +30.6%

DET +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.3	16.8	15.4	109.2	114.9	105.7
season	16.0	16.8		99.0	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.4		101.3	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	16.3	18.1	14.4	16.3
DET	20.1	15.6	16.1	15.6	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Barron	51	49	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-6	7	15.8	17.1	-1.31	14.8	19.3	-4.45
Daequan Cook	23	23	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-1	-3	15.3	16.7	-1.36	14.5	17.6	-3.10
Jason Williams	47	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	3	-11	17.3	15.2	2.07	18.0	15.3	2.65
Dorell Wright	58	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.36	1	-6	7	16.6	15.9	0.72	17.3	15.7	1.55
Alexander Johnson	52	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-6	7	17.9	14.0	3.97	18.5	14.1	4.38
Dwyane Wade	76	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-3	1	16.1	18.0	-1.89	16.6	17.6	-0.96
Ricky Davis	60	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.35	-2	-3	1	15.4	18.3	-2.88	15.7	19.3	-3.69
Mark Blount	68	69	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.29	-12	7	-19	16.1	17.4	-1.31	17.4	14.2	3.27

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	58	57	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.33	16	-11	27	17.7	14.9	2.74	16.2	16.7	-0.49
Antonio McDyess	65	64	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.42	9	-4	13	18.4	12.0	6.43	16.6	15.7	0.94
Tayshaun Prince	67	66	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.31	7	-2	9	17.2	15.1	2.09	15.5	19.0	-3.56
Rasheed Wallace	67	69	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.28	8	-3	11	16.3	18.1	-1.81	16.9	14.1	2.82
Arron Afflalo	23	21	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	-4	13	14.8	17.5	-2.69	13.9	17.1	-3.28
Richard Hamilton	67	69	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.31	-4	9	-13	16.8	16.6	0.21	16.6	15.4	1.14
Jarvis Hayes	20	21	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	7	-9	15.1	17.2	-2.09	19.0	15.5	3.56
Jason Maxiell	34	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.03	-1	6	-7	16.0	17.2	-1.20	16.2	16.4	-0.21
Amir Johnson	5	5	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.02	-6	11	-17	14.6	16.9	-2.29	13.2	16.5	-3.34
Rodney Stuckey	29	30	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	0.03	-11	16	-27	14.9	17.7	-2.74	16.7	16.2	0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.78,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.53,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.9,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 85, DET 92	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.61,0.91,0.81,0.72,0.91,0.98,1	92.4%
NYK 125, DEN 128	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.67,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.91,0.91,1	92.3%
GSW 106, MIA 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.47,0.63,0.47,0.73,0.9,0.84,0.84,0.85,1	92.1%