NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	106		Excitement	8.2 [196]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +29.8%
Miami Heat	110		Comeback	1.6 [979]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (MIA): -12.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Hunter	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.06	-0.03	6	64%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Reggie Williams	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	7	71%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.01	0.05	15	62%	0.11	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Stephen Curry	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	17	51%	0.09	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.06,-0.03	0.03	-0.06	-0.00	22	51%	0.04	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Ronny Turiaf	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.03	0.04	-0.07	0.00	8	71%	0.15	3	-0.18	5	20%	-0.09
Anthony Tolliver	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	8	50%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Devean George	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.3	0.30	0.17	0.11	-0.02	23	65%	0.37	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.05
Quentin Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.11,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.13	-0.01	8	83%	0.30	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.01	12	54%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	5	20%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	70%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	14	47%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	7	37%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	10	48%	0.02	3	-0.14	9	67%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.0	28.2	15.5	32.0	2.4	36.7	144.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +9.2%

MIA +10.5%

MIA +30.4%

GSW -1.8%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	13.6	15.7	15.3	108.2	111.1	106.0
season	13.4	16.2		106.5	104.4
opponent	15.4	14.8		102.8	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.8	13.6	15.0	12.8	13.6
MIA	13.9	16.4	15.0	17.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Hunter	40	42	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.06	1	-5	6	13.5	13.6	-0.15	15.5	15.8	-0.29
Reggie Williams	39	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.17	2	-6	8	13.7	13.5	0.22	16.2	15.3	0.86
Devean George	33	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.14	-1	-3	2	15.7	12.5	3.27	14.0	16.5	-2.50
Stephen Curry	90	89	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-5	6	13.3	16.5	-3.20	15.8	14.7	1.08
Anthony Tolliver	65	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-1	-2	12.5	15.7	-3.27	16.5	14.0	2.50
CJ Watson	82	84	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	0	-4	14.0	11.4	2.61	15.4	17.3	-1.96
Ronny Turiaf	58	56	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.43	-5	1	-6	13.6	13.5	0.15	16.0	15.2	0.81
Anthony Morrow	83	84	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.38	-11	7	-18	13.4	14.7	-1.31	15.5	16.9	-1.41

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Richardson	73	73	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.43	12	-8	20	15.0	17.6	-2.59	13.6	13.5	0.06
Dwyane Wade	78	77	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.39	12	-8	20	14.9	18.5	-3.63	13.4	14.3	-0.98
Carlos Arroyo	67	66	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.33	6	-2	8	16.5	13.9	2.65	14.0	12.7	1.20
Jermaine O'Neal	77	79	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	2	0	16.3	13.4	2.96	13.9	12.2	1.68
Michael Beasley	44	44	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	-2	8	14.7	16.5	-1.77	14.6	12.7	1.87
Udonis Haslem	55	54	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	6	-8	16.5	14.7	1.77	12.7	14.6	-1.87
Joel Anthony	21	19	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	2	0	13.9	16.2	-2.30	12.2	13.9	-1.68
Rafer Alston	14	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	6	-8	15.8	15.6	0.14	14.2	13.5	0.76
Dorell Wright	30	29	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.01	-7	11	-18	16.5	15.3	1.15	13.6	13.6	0.04
Mario Chalmers	36	35	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.01	-9	13	-22	16.1	15.4	0.61	13.0	13.9	-0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.47,0.63,0.47,0.73,0.9,0.84,0.84,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 100, CLE 108	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.98,1	94.0%
IND 93, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.7,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.66,0.52,0.37,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.96,1	93.1%
SAS 102, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.46,0.42,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.64,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.83,1	92.6%