NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	95		Excitement	5.8 [629]		MVP	Terry Porter (MIN): +26.7%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	2.1 [213]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): -12.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.07	0.18	-0.01	7	84%	0.31	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Dean Garrett	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.02	7	67%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	4	73%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.03	16	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug West	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	64%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tom Gugliotta	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	13	50%	0.04	7	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.16	-0.02	-0.05	13	50%	0.06	7	-0.18	8	62%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.09	-0.02	7	81%	0.21	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.03	14	67%	0.16	5	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	11	59%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	75%	0.04	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	11	27%	-0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	19	37%	-0.08	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.8	25.0	15.5	24.2	1.8	29.3	119.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +33.6%

MIN +21.0%

MIA -2.9%

MIA -2.8%

MIN +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	16.1	15.6	106.7	96.7	104.4
season	15.5	15.8		103.3	103.1
opponent	16.3	15.5		98.3	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.5	19.2	16.8	15.4	16.1
MIA	14.7	15.8	15.3	18.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	43	42	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.26	10	-2	12	16.6	15.7	0.89	16.0	16.1	-0.06
Stephon Marbury	71	73	0.55	-0.04	0.59	0.23	11	-3	14	16.0	16.7	-0.68	16.6	13.6	3.04
Tom Gugliotta	78	77	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	-1	10	16.0	17.1	-1.10	15.5	19.5	-3.98
Cherokee Parks	21	22	0.37	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	4	0	16.1	16.1	-0.04	15.9	16.1	-0.25
Sam Mitchell	30	32	0.34	0.17	0.17	0.19	5	3	2	16.8	15.8	1.02	16.3	15.9	0.40
Kevin Garnett	70	71	0.19	0.32	-0.13	0.13	2	6	-4	16.0	16.6	-0.65	16.6	14.2	2.41
Dean Garrett	68	68	0.14	0.37	-0.23	0.02	4	4	0	16.1	16.1	0.04	16.1	15.9	0.25
James Robinson	3	3	-0.01	0.52	-0.53	0.05	-2	10	-12	16.0	16.1	-0.13	20.7	15.9	4.77
Doug West	61	62	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	11	-14	16.0	16.5	-0.50	15.2	18.0	-2.82

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	45	45	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-5	2	16.1	16.0	0.07	15.2	17.1	-1.91
Voshon Lenard	50	51	-0.16	-0.35	0.19	-0.07	-3	-5	2	15.6	16.7	-1.11	15.4	17.1	-1.67
John Crotty	18	17	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	-0.17	0	-8	8	15.8	16.1	-0.35	17.3	15.8	1.45
Alonzo Mourning	82	80	-0.19	-0.32	0.13	-0.16	-1	-7	6	16.0	16.1	-0.08	16.2	15.7	0.51
Tim Hardaway	72	72	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-8	0	-8	16.1	15.8	0.35	15.8	17.3	-1.45
Keith Askins	40	38	-0.35	-0.16	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-3	-2	16.7	15.6	1.11	17.1	15.4	1.67
Dan Majerle	43	41	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.26	-5	-3	-2	15.8	16.3	-0.51	16.7	15.6	1.04
Ike Austin	26	26	-0.42	-0.09	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-3	-2	17.0	15.7	1.38	16.9	15.8	1.08
Jamal Mashburn	74	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	2	-12	15.9	17.0	-1.15	16.1	16.4	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 90, ORL 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.49,0.29,0.18,0.13,0.06,0.1,0.19,0.11,0,0,0	92.2%
IND 121, DET 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.18,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	92.2%
CLE 106, ATL 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.25,0.14,0.22,0.21,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.25,0.17,0.32,0.21,0.07,0.04,0.07,0,0,0,0	92.2%