NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	90		Excitement	6.5 [559]		MVP	Ryan Arcidiacono (CHI): +7.1%
Orlando Magic	82		Comeback	2.5 [263]		LVP	Mario Hezonja (ORL): -12.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Arcidiacono	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.04	0.03	4	100%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.04	-0.03	8	44%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Holiday	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sean Kilpatrick	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.04	0.05	-0.04	11	43%	0.09	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.03
Denzel Valentine	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	8	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Lauri Markkanen	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	52%	0.03	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Cameron Payne	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.03	8	69%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Cristiano Felicio	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	0.03	8	47%	-0.02	3	-0.07	1	0%	0.00
David Nwaba	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jerian Grant	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.14	0.01	-0.01	12	19%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khem Birch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.06	-0.00	3	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	16	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	21	37%	0.00	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Jamel Artis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.04	0.04	4	80%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rodney Purvis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	16	35%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	9	50%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	8	31%	-0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	26.9	15.7	26.5	1.7	24.6	122.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +46.8%

CHI +1.3%

CHI +5.1%

ORL -1.5%

ORL -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	14.0	15.2	14.7	91.8	82.8	107.5
season	14.2	14.6		103.2	104.2
opponent	14.5	15.0		109.1	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.2	14.0	13.6	15.5	14.0
ORL	15.0	14.8	13.0	18.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Arcidiacono	28	29	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.26	10	-2	12	14.6	13.8	0.77	17.1	14.4	2.63
Sean Kilpatrick	52	51	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	4	0	14.9	13.0	1.96	15.7	14.6	1.10
Jerian Grant	50	51	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	6	-4	15.1	12.9	2.12	15.9	14.4	1.50
Noah Vonleh	45	45	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	6	-4	15.5	12.7	2.80	16.3	14.3	2.06
Justin Holiday	33	34	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.14	17	-9	26	12.4	14.9	-2.50	15.0	15.3	-0.37
Cristiano Felicio	56	56	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	0	8	14.0	14.0	-0.01	15.3	15.1	0.21
Bobby Portis	42	42	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	8	-8	13.7	14.3	-0.62	15.2	15.2	0.05
Lauri Markkanen	53	55	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.10	6	2	4	13.0	15.2	-2.18	14.2	16.5	-2.32
Cameron Payne	48	48	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.11	6	2	4	12.9	15.1	-2.12	14.4	15.9	-1.50
David Nwaba	44	46	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.13	6	2	4	13.0	14.9	-1.85	14.5	15.8	-1.37
Denzel Valentine	39	38	-0.44	0.94	-1.37	0.18	-21	29	-50	14.9	13.4	1.54	14.2	15.9	-1.67

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	66	66	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-12	16	15.1	15.5	-0.41	13.9	14.2	-0.25
Nikola Vucevic	67	66	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.11	-3	-5	2	14.5	16.7	-2.23	13.7	14.7	-0.94
Rodney Purvis	51	49	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.02	-1	-7	6	14.5	16.0	-1.49	13.7	14.4	-0.69
Jonathan Isaac	47	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	-3	-2	15.1	15.3	-0.24	12.9	15.0	-2.13
Aaron Gordon	77	78	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.00	-3	-5	2	14.8	16.5	-1.66	13.7	15.3	-1.61
Khem Birch	22	20	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.27	-5	-3	-2	16.5	14.8	1.66	15.3	13.7	1.61
Mario Hezonja	52	53	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-5	2	15.3	15.1	0.24	15.0	12.9	2.13
Shelvin Mack	50	51	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	-4	0	15.6	14.8	0.78	14.4	13.6	0.86
Bismack Biyombo	29	29	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.23	-10	2	-12	17.6	14.2	3.41	14.4	13.8	0.61
Jamel Artis	34	33	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.33	-10	2	-12	15.4	15.1	0.21	14.3	13.9	0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.49,0.29,0.18,0.13,0.06,0.1,0.19,0.11,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 95, MIA 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.02,0	92.2%
SEA 103, CHA 97	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.06,0.01,0	91.2%
IND 121, DET 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.18,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	91.1%