NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	101		Excitement	11.2 [28]		MVP	Todd Day (BOS): +38.6%
Boston Celtics	103		Comeback	23.8 [27]		LVP	Danny Ferry (CLE): -38.6%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrell Brandon	0.36	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.42,0.36	-0.01	0.35	-0.02	21	58%	0.47	4	-0.11	11	91%	0.18
Bob Sura	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.18,0.18	-0.02	0.19	-0.01	12	58%	0.35	3	-0.17	7	86%	0.06
Tyrone Hill	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	8	69%	0.03	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.02
Mark West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donny Marshall	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Lang	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	6	57%	-0.00	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
Chris Mills	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	11	58%	0.03	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Danny Ferry	-0.39	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.39	-0.06	-0.33	-0.00	12	43%	-0.13	2	-0.26	4	100%	0.03

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.14,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.09	0.28	-0.01	20	64%	0.45	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.10
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24	0.24	-0.01	0.23	-0.02	14	58%	0.29	2	-0.05	10	70%	-0.01
Marty Conlon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	10	69%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.08
Steve Hamer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Hawkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alton Lister	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	17	42%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.06
Brett Szabo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nate Driggers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	6	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.2,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.38,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	0.01	-0.00	11	38%	0.06	3	-0.16	4	75%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.9	1.7	25.0	16.7	26.2	2.5	39.2	1.7	20.6	158.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	1.6	17.8	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +28.0%

CLE -31.5%

CLE -1.1%

BOS +46.0%

BOS +8.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	BOS	NBA	CLE	BOS	NBA
this game	16.2	15.5	15.6	102.0	101.0	104.4
season	17.8	14.8		102.1	101.8
opponent	14.7	16.1		109.5	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CLE	16.2	19.7	15.2	15.0	13.9	16.2
BOS	13.2	17.2	14.2	17.8	15.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vitaly Potapenko	30	31	0.25	-0.75	0.99	0.04	7	-9	16	14.4	16.9	-2.56	16.1	15.2	0.86
Antonio Lang	25	26	0.20	-0.70	0.89	-0.01	7	-9	16	15.0	16.6	-1.59	15.0	15.7	-0.67
Mark West	7	6	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-2	2	14.6	16.3	-1.70	18.3	15.3	3.01
Chris Mills	86	86	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-1	0	16.5	13.9	2.57	15.4	16.2	-0.82
Donny Marshall	8	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	0	-2	17.0	16.1	0.92	16.6	15.4	1.15
Tyrone Hill	76	77	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	2	-6	16.9	13.7	3.26	15.1	16.6	-1.46
Bob Sura	80	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	0	-2	16.4	15.1	1.36	15.7	14.7	0.94
Danny Ferry	76	79	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.57	-5	3	-8	16.5	15.0	1.56	15.3	16.0	-0.70
Terrell Brandon	89	93	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.54	-6	4	-10	16.1	16.8	-0.72	15.5	15.8	-0.30

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Todd Day	83	80	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.45	9	-7	16	14.7	18.8	-4.04	16.7	13.8	2.86
Antoine Walker	89	86	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.42	6	-4	10	15.4	15.9	-0.48	16.4	14.7	1.68
David Wesley	98	95	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.47	2	0	2	15.3	19.7	-4.42	15.9	21.5	-5.57
Rick Fox	87	85	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.50	-3	5	-8	15.3	16.7	-1.45	16.1	16.4	-0.24
Alton Lister	24	24	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.45	-6	8	-14	14.7	15.7	-0.98	13.2	17.1	-3.89
Steve Hamer	5	5	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.09	8	-6	14	18.6	15.3	3.26	22.6	15.8	6.79
Marty Conlon	68	68	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.20	9	-7	16	16.5	13.6	2.87	17.6	13.0	4.59
Brett Szabo	29	25	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.23	-6	8	-14	14.7	15.8	-1.08	13.7	17.0	-3.25
Michael Hawkins	4	4	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	2	-2	19.7	15.3	4.42	21.5	15.9	5.57
Nate Driggers	23	23	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.01	-9	11	-20	17.5	14.9	2.61	13.6	16.9	-3.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.49,0.45,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.84,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.37,0.29,0.53,0.25,0.08,0.09,0.27,0.46,0.61,0.55,0.67,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 101, DEN 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.41,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.53,0.36,0.46,0.34,0.26,0.46,0.14,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.42,1	88.0%
BKN 108, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.33,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.37,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.33,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.22,0.47,0.46,0.74,0.78,0.45,0.27,1	87.2%
LAL 104, CHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.23,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.1,0.1,0.54,0.69,0.72,0.95,0.84,1	87.2%