NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	83		Excitement	4.8 [833]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +17.5%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	1.2 [959]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -14.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.13	-0.03	0.04	19	63%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Litterial Green	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.03	3	60%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Grant Long	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	14	52%	0.03	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	10	42%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Joe Dumars	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	13	55%	-0.03	4	-0.12	12	58%	-0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.04	-0.02	21	67%	0.24	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.02	11	73%	0.19	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.16	-0.00	0.09	15	81%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.01	8	50%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	3	37%	0.00	2	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	6	29%	-0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	3.8	24.2	15.3	25.3	2.4	26.6	120.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +52.2%

DET -5.3%

MIA +4.9%

DET -7.2%

MIA +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	18.2	15.6	102.5	113.4	104.4
season	17.1	15.8		107.6	103.1
opponent	16.3	16.2		98.3	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.1	18.0	15.7	17.8	17.1
MIA	13.6	17.1	22.2	21.1	18.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Long	7	7	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.06	7	-17	24	12.9	17.6	-4.70	20.1	18.0	2.14
Litterial Green	3	5	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-9	8	7.3	17.5	-10.19	17.8	18.2	-0.41
Joe Dumars	47	47	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-13	16	16.7	17.7	-1.01	18.1	18.3	-0.13
Aaron McKie	18	20	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-7	4	15.6	17.6	-1.98	17.2	18.5	-1.23
Theo Ratliff	20	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.07	-7	-3	-4	16.7	17.3	-0.53	18.4	18.1	0.33
Jerome Williams	16	18	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-2	-6	16.7	17.3	-0.57	16.3	18.7	-2.44
Otis Thorpe	64	62	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-5	0	17.8	14.6	3.17	18.2	18.0	0.24
Michael Curry	41	42	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-7	4	17.7	16.6	1.03	17.8	18.6	-0.81
Terry Mills	52	52	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	-4	-2	17.8	16.0	1.73	18.6	17.5	1.02
Grant Hill	71	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.26	-9	-1	-8	17.4	15.6	1.77	18.6	15.8	2.87
Lindsey Hunter	66	67	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.12	-18	8	-26	17.3	16.4	0.92	18.2	18.1	0.06

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	72	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.17	13	-3	16	18.2	17.8	0.44	17.4	15.3	2.04
Jamal Mashburn	64	64	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-4	18	17.8	19.4	-1.55	17.3	16.6	0.63
Tim Hardaway	82	81	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	18.2	0.0	18.18	17.1	0.0	17.15
Dan Majerle	39	36	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	5	0	19.5	17.0	2.54	16.8	17.4	-0.62
Ike Austin	32	29	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	5	0	20.2	16.9	3.29	16.4	17.6	-1.14
Alonzo Mourning	59	59	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	5	0	17.8	19.2	-1.44	17.0	17.5	-0.48
P.J. Brown	51	52	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	5	0	16.6	20.7	-4.06	17.6	16.4	1.14
Keith Askins	11	12	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.08	-7	17	-24	18.5	18.1	0.42	16.7	17.2	-0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 90, NJN 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.6,0.67,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.8,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
WAS 86, ORL 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.79,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.92,1,1,1	94.1%
TOR 81, WAS 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,1	94.0%