NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	8.5 [166]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +20.1%
New Jersey Nets	92		Comeback	6.8 [475]		LVP	Keith Askins (MIA): -31.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.20	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.2	0.08	0.11	-0.01	20	67%	0.31	3	-0.11	12	75%	0.08
Tim Hardaway	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,0	0.06	-0.02	0.03	21	59%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.06
Dan Majerle	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	0.02	-0.09	-0.00	12	58%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Ike Austin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	-0.00	7	53%	0.01	2	-0.14	3	33%	-0.04
Keith Askins	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.23,-0.23,-0.31,-0.31	-0.09	-0.22	0.00	6	21%	-0.25	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Xavier McDaniel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.05	0.02	18	61%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Kleine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.06
Kendall Gill	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.07	0.04	19	54%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.09	0.01	7	60%	0.01	1	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.10	0.00	13	55%	-0.05	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-0.03	6	28%	-0.09	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.04
Jim Jackson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.24	-0.24	-0.11	-0.14	-0.02	10	33%	-0.20	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	25.6	15.6	26.6	2.7	39.1	135.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +35.7%

NJN -3.5%

MIA +22.6%

NJN -10.4%

MIA +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	16.7	16.8	15.6	108.0	108.2	104.4
season	15.8	15.4		103.1	101.7
opponent	14.9	16.3		106.6	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	15.9	17.4	16.7	16.7
NJN	14.6	17.7	16.9	18.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	61	59	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.66	6	-4	10	16.5	17.0	-0.55	16.2	18.4	-2.23
Tim Hardaway	77	77	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.46	12	-10	22	16.4	18.5	-2.08	16.8	17.5	-0.73
Alonzo Mourning	79	78	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.48	7	-5	12	16.7	16.4	0.31	16.7	18.3	-1.58
Keith Askins	54	51	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	-4	10	15.7	18.2	-2.41	17.6	15.7	1.93
Jamal Mashburn	69	68	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.40	-4	6	-10	17.8	12.2	5.59	17.1	15.6	1.56
Dan Majerle	17	14	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.20	-3	5	-8	12.3	17.7	-5.42	12.1	17.8	-5.70
P.J. Brown	41	41	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	6	-10	17.9	15.5	2.36	15.6	18.0	-2.46
Ike Austin	21	21	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	-0.19	-4	6	-10	16.8	16.6	0.14	21.0	15.5	5.47
John Crotty	16	16	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	-0.21	-6	8	-14	17.7	16.4	1.26	18.6	16.4	2.13

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Xavier McDaniel	14	15	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-6	10	15.5	17.1	-1.60	16.4	16.7	-0.31
Eric Montross	50	50	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-3	4	18.0	15.2	2.73	17.8	15.1	2.79
Joe Kleine	19	20	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	1	-4	15.3	17.3	-2.02	14.7	17.2	-2.54
Kevin Edwards	34	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.09	-3	1	-4	15.7	17.6	-1.88	15.7	17.3	-1.53
Sam Cassell	51	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.35	1	-3	4	17.6	15.7	1.88	17.3	15.7	1.53
Kerry Kittles	56	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.45	4	-6	10	17.0	16.6	0.38	16.5	16.9	-0.41
Kendall Gill	62	64	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.33	-6	4	-10	17.6	14.8	2.75	17.0	15.7	1.36
Jim Jackson	68	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.47	-2	0	-2	15.7	21.5	-5.87	16.1	18.6	-2.47
Tony Massenburg	71	72	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.45	-6	4	-10	17.1	15.5	1.60	16.7	16.4	0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.33,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 92, PHX 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.66,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.64,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.16,0.42,0	90.8%
MIN 99, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.68,0.75,0.82,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.73,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.45,0.29,0.23,0.29,0	90.7%
DET 105, SAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.3,0.19,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.58,0.47,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.69,0.54,0.45,0.74,0	90.3%