NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	105		Excitement	10.1 [74]		MVP	Brandon Jennings (DET): +32.3%
San Antonio Spurs	104		Comeback	20.1 [39]		LVP	Patty Mills (SAS): -20.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0.32	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,0.32	-0.11	0.44	0.01	18	34%	0.37	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.04	0.03	10	71%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Jodie Meeks	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1	0.01	0.09	0.00	11	48%	0.10	0	0.00	5	100%	0.07
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	9	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Caron Butler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.21,0.13,0.13,-0.03,-0.03	0.05	-0.08	-0.01	10	69%	0.19	4	-0.22	9	44%	-0.13
D.J. Augustin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	18	49%	0.05	2	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Anthony Tolliver	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.2,-0.2	-0.06	-0.13	-0.00	5	27%	-0.15	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	10	65%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.03	0.14	-0.00	7	61%	0.28	4	-0.17	4	75%	0.06
Jeff Ayres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.02	0.02	8	70%	0.11	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.01	8	67%	0.15	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	4	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Tiago Splitter	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	9	45%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.09
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	30%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	0.03	-0.12	0.00	5	67%	-0.03	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.16
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.13	-0.13	0.02	-0.14	0.00	12	58%	0.09	2	-0.21	2	50%	-0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2	-0.20	-0.11	-0.09	-0.00	10	27%	-0.08	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.4	31.2	15.8	26.2	2.3	43.5	147.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +10.3%

DET +6.4%

DET +9.4%

DET +17.8%

DET +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	15.0	14.7	15.1	108.2	107.2	104.2
season	15.7	15.4		104.0	106.9
opponent	14.9	15.3		101.1	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.0	15.1	13.1	16.7	15.0
SAS	15.0	11.5	19.0	14.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	69	67	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.55	7	-6	13	15.4	14.0	1.44	15.2	13.5	1.69
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	74	74	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.69	1	0	1	14.3	17.3	-2.98	15.2	13.1	2.12
Brandon Jennings	59	59	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.45	9	-8	17	14.5	15.8	-1.36	15.2	13.9	1.24
Anthony Tolliver	46	47	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.33	6	-5	11	14.6	15.3	-0.68	13.7	15.6	-1.94
Jodie Meeks	61	61	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.55	-7	8	-15	15.6	14.0	1.53	14.2	15.5	-1.27
Kyle Singler	32	32	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.08	9	-8	17	13.4	15.8	-2.41	16.2	14.0	2.26
Greg Monroe	55	56	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.04	2	-1	3	14.5	15.6	-1.03	15.3	13.9	1.47
Caron Butler	19	20	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.21	0	1	-1	17.2	14.4	2.76	13.2	15.1	-1.89
Jonas Jerebko	24	24	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.11	-13	14	-27	15.5	14.8	0.68	13.7	15.0	-1.26
D.J. Augustin	46	45	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.04	-9	10	-19	16.3	13.8	2.42	13.5	15.8	-2.30

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Ayres	31	34	0.30	-0.80	1.10	-0.17	16	-17	33	14.0	15.0	-1.03	17.6	13.6	4.00
Cory Joseph	50	51	0.20	-0.70	0.91	0.29	-3	2	-5	14.7	14.7	0.04	17.1	12.7	4.40
Tiago Splitter	53	53	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.41	-10	9	-19	15.8	13.4	2.45	14.9	15.1	-0.14
Tony Parker	30	29	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.06	-1	0	-1	14.0	15.0	-1.06	12.3	16.1	-3.82
Marco Belinelli	46	47	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.08	-3	2	-5	15.5	14.0	1.52	14.4	15.6	-1.22
Boris Diaw	42	43	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.47	16	-17	33	13.0	16.0	-2.96	17.9	12.7	5.20
Matt Bonner	19	18	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.01	-7	6	-13	16.1	14.4	1.68	9.2	16.3	-7.08
Danny Green	71	68	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.36	-3	2	-5	15.4	12.8	2.64	13.6	18.3	-4.74
Patty Mills	40	42	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.90	13	-14	27	13.6	15.5	-1.92	16.5	13.8	2.66
Manu Ginobili	54	54	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.58	-6	5	-11	14.3	15.2	-0.87	15.6	14.2	1.40
Tim Duncan	49	46	-1.20	0.70	-1.89	-0.70	-17	16	-33	14.9	14.5	0.32	12.7	17.1	-4.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.3,0.19,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.58,0.47,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.69,0.54,0.45,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 94, NJN 92	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.33,0.42,0	90.3%
LAL 129, BOS 128	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.22,0.32,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.69,0.84,0	90.1%
POR 92, PHX 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.66,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.64,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.16,0.42,0	88.5%