NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	99		Excitement	5.4 [721]		MVP	Grant Hill (DET): +13.4%
San Antonio Spurs	92		Comeback	1.7 [1096]		LVP	Monty Williams (SAS): -11.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.05	0.03	22	61%	0.13	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Joe Dumars	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.07	-0.02	12	58%	0.17	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	54%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Terry Mills	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	57%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Long	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	11	55%	-0.04	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.05

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Herrera	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	16	65%	0.17	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	14	59%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	12	56%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	47%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	7	36%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	44%	-0.00	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	10%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Monty Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	9	33%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.6	24.1	15.8	23.4	2.0	29.2	119.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +41.4%

DET +5.2%

SAS -14.4%

DET +13.7%

DET +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	17.3	17.0	15.6	117.9	109.5	104.4
season	17.1	16.8		107.6	100.8
opponent	15.4	16.2		109.4	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.3	16.4	15.8	19.6	17.3
SAS	13.4	17.9	20.2	17.3	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Mills	45	45	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.11	18	-11	29	17.2	17.4	-0.21	16.4	17.7	-1.32
Grant Hill	75	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.29	7	0	7	17.7	14.0	3.67	17.2	15.3	1.94
Otis Thorpe	72	71	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.31	3	4	-1	17.8	14.2	3.63	17.3	15.7	1.56
Joe Dumars	64	63	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.33	2	5	-3	17.5	16.6	0.82	17.8	14.7	3.06
Lindsey Hunter	66	66	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.27	4	3	1	17.2	17.6	-0.36	16.7	18.0	-1.26
Michael Curry	24	24	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	6	-5	15.6	17.9	-2.37	16.0	17.4	-1.48
Grant Long	14	14	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	3	1	16.2	17.5	-1.27	16.4	17.1	-0.70
Aaron McKie	27	28	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	5	-3	15.9	17.9	-1.99	15.0	18.0	-3.07
Theo Ratliff	33	35	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.05	-6	13	-19	17.9	16.8	1.10	18.5	15.9	2.62

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Johnson	44	42	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-11	15	16.9	17.1	-0.22	17.1	17.4	-0.31
Monty Williams	35	36	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.07	2	-9	11	18.9	15.7	3.26	16.6	17.8	-1.16
Vinny Del Negro	54	55	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.29	7	-14	21	17.9	15.5	2.40	17.9	16.0	1.89
Greg Anderson	10	11	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-5	3	19.9	16.6	3.28	17.1	17.3	-0.21
Charles Smith	25	25	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.06	-10	3	-13	16.3	17.3	-1.04	15.0	18.2	-3.18
Will Perdue	60	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-8	9	16.7	17.8	-1.09	17.7	16.2	1.59
Carl Herrera	72	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.30	-2	-5	3	17.2	15.6	1.67	17.9	13.9	3.96
Vernon Maxwell	30	29	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.00	-14	7	-21	15.5	17.9	-2.40	16.0	17.9	-1.89
Dominique Wilkins	50	50	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.18	-10	3	-13	15.5	19.2	-3.74	17.5	17.0	0.51
Cory Alexander	40	42	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.31	-11	4	-15	17.1	16.9	0.22	17.4	17.1	0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.15,0.17,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 94, POR 84	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.22,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.6%
DET 87, CLE 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.15,0.13,0.04,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
UTA 85, ORL 73	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.26,0.26,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.4%