NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	81		Excitement	6.4 [507]		MVP	Glen Rice (CHH): +12.3%
Orlando Magic	86		Comeback	2.6 [596]		LVP	Dell Curry (CHH): -16.6%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Rice	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.2,0.12	0.18	-0.07	-0.01	25	75%	0.34	5	-0.22	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Pierce	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.02	6	67%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	3	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Geiger	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	57%	-0.03	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.13
Donald Royal	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	11	27%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Dell Curry	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	13	35%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Horace Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.04	-0.03	9	40%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	14	66%	0.12	4	-0.13	4	75%	0.02
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	14	57%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	22	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	0.00	8	12%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.0	24.0	15.5	21.4	2.4	32.3	120.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +4.0%

ORL +23.8%

ORL +2.0%

ORL +18.3%

ORL +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	ORL	NBA	CHH	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	17.7	15.6	94.2	98.9	104.4
season	15.7	16.4		108.0	102.9
opponent	15.5	16.0		103.5	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	17.1	15.0	15.9	14.5	15.6
ORL	16.4	17.0	16.9	20.5	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donald Royal	19	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-4	3	16.6	15.3	1.24	15.0	18.4	-3.40
Tony Delk	25	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-6	7	14.4	16.1	-1.66	16.6	18.1	-1.55
Tony Smith	16	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.00	-3	-2	-1	17.2	15.3	1.93	16.8	17.9	-1.12
Matt Geiger	29	31	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.24	3	-8	11	14.1	16.4	-2.23	18.8	17.1	1.72
Ricky Pierce	10	10	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.06	-9	4	-13	15.2	15.7	-0.47	16.3	17.8	-1.54
Dell Curry	60	60	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.41	7	-12	19	15.3	16.4	-1.16	18.1	16.6	1.56
Glen Rice	77	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-7	9	14.9	22.1	-7.25	18.3	13.1	5.24
Vlade Divac	57	56	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	-0.11	-8	3	-11	16.4	14.1	2.23	17.1	18.8	-1.72
Muggsy Bogues	61	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	1	-7	16.1	14.4	1.66	18.1	16.6	1.55
Anthony Mason	76	78	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.33	-11	6	-17	16.1	11.6	4.54	17.7	17.4	0.25

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Hardaway	75	73	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.30	15	-10	25	17.2	20.6	-3.38	16.2	12.1	4.17
Dennis Scott	69	69	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.27	11	-6	17	17.2	19.4	-2.17	15.2	17.4	-2.16
Rony Seikaly	74	75	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.28	9	-4	13	17.9	16.5	1.33	15.5	16.2	-0.65
Horace Grant	71	71	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	1	3	17.8	16.9	0.97	15.3	17.1	-1.76
Brian Shaw	68	68	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.24	1	4	-3	18.3	15.5	2.81	15.2	17.0	-1.75
Darrell Armstrong	23	22	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.13	-1	6	-7	17.7	17.6	0.10	16.4	15.4	1.00
Derek Strong	29	26	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	8	-11	16.7	18.1	-1.41	16.7	15.1	1.54
Gerald Wilkins	26	26	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.12	-11	16	-27	18.5	17.3	1.24	15.3	15.7	-0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.46,0.52,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.59,0.7,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.6,0.75,0.63,0.94,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 90, BOS 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.64,0.52,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.77,0.67,0.6,0.78,0.87,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.95,0.91,1	92.2%
WAS 105, LAC 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.74,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.96,0.9,0.99,1	91.8%
NYK 70, PHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.95,1	91.6%